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Messages - smallsharkbigbite

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101

Technically Sega did the knee jerk reaction many on the internet want Nintendo to do and just killed their system too early, leaving a gap of about two years of nothing before the Dreamcast was released.  This was one of the factors that killed that system since many didn't exactly trust Sega anymore because they didn't want to buy a system that could be killed in less then 3 years.


Well, Sega killed the Sega CD, 32X, Saturn, and then Dreamcast all very quickly.  That's a little different than moving on from just one failure.  Nintendo moved on from the Virtual Boy pretty quickly and didn't suffer a setback in the portable sector. 


Surprising they usually supported the consoles with lots of games.  The Saturn had 596 games released for it and the 688 games.  It would be almost impossible for the Wii U to hit that many games even if they support it for 5 years. 

102
You made a statement about EA's specific relationship with Nintendo and I answered it. Now you want to make look like I'm oversimplifying Nintendo's third party issues. Stop, just stop.


Except that it's not true for EA either.  The Genesis got the best version of EA sports games because Sega worked with EA.  Square gave their RPGs to PS1 over the N64, Rockstar skipped Nintendo with GTA.  EA has been constantly pulling things from Nintendo over the years.  EA dropped Nascar, MVP Baseball, NCAA sports from the Gamecube.  They followed it up by pulling Tiger Woods, NFS, All Mature Titles (Mass Effect/Battlefront) for the Wii.  I'm not sure what happened with EA, but if anything whatever happened simply quickened the effect that was already happening.  By the end of the Wii U there never was going to be any EA support without positive interaction from Nintendo.   


I think you also simplify it to EA pitching Nintendo and being surprised when Nintendo didn't use them.  Nintendo went to EA for online help.  There also had to be some sort working relationship with EA for EA to bring as many games as they did at launch.  Mass Effect 1 + 2 skipped Wii and they brought 3 to the Wii U.  NFS Most wanted skipped Wii and they brought it to Wii U.  Yeah, you can argue they torpedoed those releases, but they lost money bringing to the Wii U so they cared enough about the Wii U to put investment to it at one point.  Had whatever positive effect not happened, I think you'd have seen Madden 13 and maybe Fifa 13 at launch and that is it (based on their Wii support).  Then based on sales they probably wouldn't have developed sequels for those either. 

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EA knew no one was going to buy the game at full price. Accidental or not, the Origin sale was their best chance to recoup the investment they made porting the game. And I find it gard to believe it was a glitch when the press release for the sale mentioned Wii U as well as other platforms.


If EAs only chance to recoup was to sell the game at a loss, then I still don't know how the sale was a bad thing.  And I still don't know how an obscure sale that 95% of the people in the US didn't know about would have a material affect on the total sales for that game.  I got NSMB U for $39.99 on sale durting the first month at Target.  Did that sale hamper Wii U sales as Nintendo went for initial adopters instead of long term sales?  I just don't understand your argument here.  Games go on sale all the time. 

103
I know you only blame EA for that, but EA's attitude changed because of the treatment they received from Nintendo. 
Yeah, how dare Nintendo say no to an Origin-based Nintendo Network.


Yes, this is exactly what I was saying in my previous posts.  Your unbiased simplification of Nintendo's third party issues to just this one issue is spot on.  I'm glad you were able to sift through my verbiage to pull this out.  All the third parties that have either left Nintendo or are in the process would certainly stay with Nintendo if they had Origin Network.  Rockstar, EA, Ubisoft, Warner Bros, Activision would all prioritize Wii U projects.  We know that PS4 is very popular because it uses Origin.  It's not like Nintendo has other third party relationship issues.  It's not like Nintendo reached out to EA for help with their online infrastructure. 

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Why would EA selling the Wii U version for 29.99 on day 1 be a bad thing?


It's bad because every other retailer except Origin was selling the game full price. They sacrificed long term sales to cash in early knowing the game was projected to sell poorly anyway.


Most games either have a day 1 sale or pre-order bonus nowadays.  I don't see how a brief sale early in the game's life would lead to fewer sales.  It may lead to less money for EA as the retailer, but it doesn't lead to less money for Nintendo since they get the same licensing fee regardless of sale price. 

If anything it probably was incentive to some people that would pick the cheaper Xbox/PS versions for cheaper to pick up the Wii U version.  Also, I'm pretty sure it was a website glitch and not an intentional sale.  I remember seeing the post on here and thinking about it for a day.  I checked the next day and the Wii U version was $59.99 while the PS3/360 versions remained $29.99.  If it was intentional they probably would have had the Wii U version on sale as long as the others. 


I mean we are talking about the Origin website, not Walmart.  Most people probably never knew about this sale and it's long term effects were certainly minimal. 

104
If the game had came out at the console's launch, then I wouldn't be commenting about it being a late port.  It came out several months after the launch (I guess in the "launch window").

Rumor is that they tried to make it a launch game.  It looks like EA and Nintendo were getting along and EA starting this project and a bunch of projects on the Wii U.  At some point in the middle things soured and EA didn't really give a crap about Wii U projects.  It's likely they didn't want to allocate the necessary resources to help NFS Most Wanted become a launch title.  I know you only blame EA for that, but EA's attitude changed because of the treatment they received from Nintendo.  That's why I think there is enough blame to go around.  Either way I doubt he came to Nintendo 1/31/13 to ask for help.  They had to come to Nintendo at a time when relations were good and they actually thought Nintendo might help them out.  It would have been before the Wii U launched and Nintendo could have given them that ultimatum (make it out for launch and we'll help you).  Obviously there was no desire on their end to help out. 

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It's a great game and it deserved more sales than it got - but I think it's folly to say that it's on Nintendo.  If EA, one of the two largest third party developers, doesn't have the faith to market their game, why should that fall back on Nintendo?

So what, no third party has faith in their game?  It's all the third parties fault that the Wii U has no significant third party activity?  Nintendo isn't to blame at all?  If this was just EA skipping Nintendo consoles I'd see your point.  At the rate major third party games are missing the Wii U, I can't help but think Nintendo is the problem.  At the very least you should be upset that Nintendo doesn't care about giving you the consumer the best gaming experience. 

EA is like the ex-girlfriend spouting crap after the breakup.  It's petty and makes them an easy target to blame things on.  But Nintendo quite simply doesn't care.  They don't care that NFS was on the Wii U or if a future version is on the Wii U.  They don't care if third parties make good Wii U games or crappy Wii U games or no Wii U games at all.  And they aren't going to try anything to get any third party to replace the gap  that games like this create.  You can blame EA if you want, but the Wii U will be a worse console without great third party support.  Nintendo should care that the Wii U is a worse console because of that, but they don't.

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Skylanders: Giants released as a late port on WiiU (due to the launch window timing).  The game still had plenty of marketing buzz.

It was only a month late and they were advertising all the versions including Wii U.  It also did pretty terrible on the Wii U so I don't know that it should be the third party gold standard for how to be successful on the Wii U. 

105
Why would EA selling the Wii U version for 29.99 on day 1 be a bad thing?  If anything it should have pushed extra sales and pushed word of mouth on the game. Digital sales would have suffered, but EA and Nintendo make money out of disc sales as well. Their preference may be digital but they'll gladly sell discs.

Yme is right. There are lots of little things Nintendo could have done without spending a bunch on marketing. As outsiders its tough for us to know what usually happens. Maybe its standard for certain things to be provided by Nintendo or at least standard for Sony/Microsoft to provide.  If Nintendo didn't provide something that was expected, I can see the reason for being upset. 

Nintendo charges something like $12 a disc for licensing so shouldn't they have some obligation for that fee?  That's the way I look at it. Nintendo's job is to have an ecosystem that third parties can make money on. Until that time they should be doing everything they can to help third parties be successful. After they've developed that system that is profitable then its on the third parties. Thats just my 2 cents.

Uncle Bob its impossible to know the details behind every deal so its convenient to ask for proof when there is no way to provide that proof. In my experience new consoles often get late ports that have significant marketing. The easiest example is Madden 25. This came out 3 months late but was advertised heavily for ps 4/xbo. I'd almost be surprised if Sony/Microsoft didn't have a hand in that marketing.  I could probably go through the last several console launches and come up with more than 10 late ports that received good marketing. 

Lastly, I don't really know how anyone can not blame this to some extent on Nintendo. Nintendo and EA both spit in each others faces. Did EA send the game to die?  Yes. But they sent it to die because the relationship was broken. At a macro level Nintendo shares blame for the deterioration of the relationship. I don't think you can look at the micro level (game) only and pretend the macro doesn't matter. It would be like me punching my auto mechanic in the face and then being surprised when he doesn't fix my car.  Then blame him solely for not fixing my car when my actions led to him not fixing my car. 

106
I think that the concept of a killer app doesn't really exist anymore. Technology has advanced past the point where new systems will bring with them a totally new kind of game that we haven't seen before. Wii Sports is an exception that managed to avoid this, but systems like the PS3, Xbox 360, Xbox One, PS4, Wii U, PS2, 3DS, DS, PSP, PSVita, etc. don't have anything that's a killer app.


I'd argue most of the past systems don't have a killer app either.  I think the killer apps of old (Tetris, Super Mario Bros) weren't really technology driven but were driven by uniqueness.  Uniqueness is hard to come by now.  10,000s of games have been released since video game consoles first came on the market and most are easy to place in well defined genres.  You'd really need to create a new genre of games to come up with a killer app.  That's what Nintendo did with Wii Sports bringing motion control to the living room. 


I think it's crazy that Nintendo continues to hang it's hat on coming up with unique controls that add value.  Many people thought Mario 64 was justification for analog.  I thought the DS remake was excellent and I never used the touch controls, but rather the SNES layout.  Barring obviously not enough HP to run graphics, Mario 64 could have been an excellent SNES title.


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Titanfall is being pumped as such, but I doubt it's going to have much of an impact. A lot of big franchises have faded quite a bit over the last gen, so it's hard to see Gears 4, Halo 5, FFIV, etc. stirring up major sales spikes.


I think the thing Microsoft is going to do better than Nintendo is they are going to keep their userbase engaged with constant quality releases which will drive consumers to their system.  Titanfall as a free pack in is an awesome idea.  Imagine 6 months in (when most realized the Wii U was struggling) and Nintendo came out with 3D world as a pack-in?  I think that would have boosted consumer interest before people just got tired of the Wii U.  Then those other titles (and more) are gravy (imagine Nintendo coming out with X, Bayonetta 2, Mario Kart, Smash, Pikmin, Zelda the rest of 2013).  That lineup would have killed and Wii U would be blazin right now.  If Nintendo could pump out 15-20 quality (real quality not just releases) a year the Wii U would be doing well.  Nintendo can't do that and with no third party support they have no hope of getting to that level.  Which means that some consumers will never see enough value to pick up a Wii U for just a few games and Wii U owners are likely to get disinterested in the Wii U and not keep up with new releases. 


I also think the main difference between Microsoft and Nintendo is Microsoft created alot of ill-will with consumers right before the Xbox One released.  Maybe they can't get back consumer trust, but I think Microsoft's issue right now is more than just a game issue which is what Nintendo's issue is.  They also have price decreases to bring consumer excitement whereas Nintendo already has a reasonably priced console. 

107
TalkBack / Re: Konami's New LovePlus+ for 3DS
« on: March 08, 2014, 08:20:07 PM »
If this is an accurate dating sim, the micro-transactions will be mandatory and will make this the most expensive game ever. 

108
TalkBack / Re: Physical Games vs. Digital Games: The Face-Off
« on: February 25, 2014, 08:20:05 PM »
Having a bunch of digital games is nice to play, but it's a massive disappointment if you ever want to roll around naked in a giant pile of them.


Please never sell your games.  Maybe I should stop buying used.  I'm off to disinfect all of my games now. 

109
Nintendo taking over the xbox division only works if they are willing to change their third party policies going forward.  Although it would be a nice way to get that immediate third party bump. 

I thought these couple of quotes were interesting and somewhat comparable to Nintendo's situation:

Steve Jobs - "Innovation has nothing to do with how many R&D dollars you have. When Apple came up with the Mac, IBM was spending at least 100 times more on R&D. It's not about money. It's about the people you have, how you're led, and how much you get it."-- Fortune, Nov. 9, 1998

I think this is why Nintendo should be able to compete with Sony/Microsoft.  People always say Nintendo is innovative, then why doesn't the market see it? 

Tim Cook (Apple COO at the time, Goldman Sach's Q&A -"We say no to good ideas every day. We say no to great ideas in order to keep the amount of things we focus on very small in number, so that we can put enormous energy behind the ones we do choose, so that we can deliver the best products in the world. In fact, the table that each of you are sitting at today, you could probably put every product on it that Apple makes, and yet Apple’s revenue last year was over $40 billion. I think the only other company that could say that is an oil company."

That's why I'm not excited about QoL platform.  It seems like a lack of focus from Nintendo and their focus should be on improving what they've done best and why we are all fans, making interactive gaming experiences better. 

110
Nintendo Gaming / Re: What will this year be the year of for Nintendo?
« on: February 23, 2014, 07:42:37 AM »
I would love to see the year of VC.  Where they release a new VC console and 10-12 games each month for that console.  I don't get the character specific promotions.  Some people don't like Luigi and that wasn't going to change anything.  Plus there wasn't enough emphasis (like a game a month) to get people excited about Luigi. 


Alternatively, they could have the year of the gamepad and try to focus on bringing out specific eshop content each month to really showcase the gamepad.  I think they still have a lack of games out there that show why the gamepad is so important. 

111
TalkBack / Re: Physical Games vs. Digital Games: The Face-Off
« on: February 22, 2014, 06:54:19 PM »
If you keep your Wii U with all your games downloaded to it it won't matter if you can't connect to the eShop, they'll all still be there.


Yes, but even if you take good care of consoles, they could still fail.  I've had a gamecube and a wii fail, yet my SNES works like a champ.  Modern consoles have a fail rate (though small) that is unrelated to care of the console.  Those two consoles are viewed as "gold standard" for modern consoles and they still failed.  With physical I just find a new console.  With download, you're pretty much screwed.  Maybe it's a small chance and I'm paranoid, but I still don't like it. 

112
TalkBack / Re: Physical Games vs. Digital Games: The Face-Off
« on: February 22, 2014, 10:20:42 AM »
It's not that hard to find a working NES, and those things were notoriously flimsy. I don't see why everyone's assuming current hardware won't work in 30 years if cared for properly. I'm not sure about Bluray, but I know there's a good chance DVDs will have degraded significantly in that time span as well.


Most DVD manufacturers claim a life for DVD-Roms at 100 years.  The DVDs that are purchased for systems are all pressed and then a plastic layer is added to protect the data.  It is very unlikely that normal use will result in scratches that will will reach the data layer.  If the data layer is exposed to the environment, then yes, data loss can occur.


I think the think with the NES is it was such a simple piece of hardware and it's very easy to fix the issues surrounding it.  With all the parts in the Wii U, it seems like there are alot more failure points and it will probably be difficult to replace. 


Plus, my thinking is that if I have a physical copy of a disc, I will probably be able to find a working Wii U in the future and be able to utilize the disc on that.  If I have a download, it is unlikely that Wii U's will be able to connect to the eshop, meaning I can't experience that game on a Wii U in the future.  Nintendo may get their act together and use the account system to access the games on future systems, and that will be good enough for most people.  But to use the gamepad and controllers that you originally experienced the original game with will not be possible.   

113
TalkBack / Re: Physical Games vs. Digital Games: The Face-Off
« on: February 20, 2014, 07:16:34 PM »
So we all believe that once something gets put on the internet (a photo, documents, whatever), it's there forever. But then we turn around and think that there's some magical kill switch that will send all digital versions of games into the ether after a determined amount of time, forever lost in a digital sea. What?

It's not there forever (well maybe that unfortunate picture is).  I'm a big fan of NR2K3.  There have been thousands of thousands of things made by the community for the game.  Most of the sites that host things are ran by enthusiasts on a paper thin budget.  Most of those sites have shut down and there is no way to get that material today.  Archive.org is full of broken links for those old sites.

I think too, we need to differentiate between what's on the internet and what's on the eshop.  That's what people are talking about the content being removed (or never re-released) on the eshop which is likely to happen.  Especially if one decides to not buy the new Nintendo console.  Nintendo won't support eshop functionality for longer than 10-15 years for the Wii U.  Then you are cut off.  That's not a difficult thing to understand. 

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It's a bit naive to think that there aren't digital preservation efforts going on to match what we have with books, films and optical media.

This is certainly not legal and if Nintendo still exists in the video game industry they will sue that website into oblivion if they publish 1 Nintendo title.

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All forms of physical media decay over time. When it comes to video games, companies don't have long term preservation strategies because it didn't dawn on them that people will still be playing these games 40-50 years into the future(and that's still short term thinking).

Most companies don't have long term preservation strategies because they don't see the financial viability in re-releasing their games (especially when alot didn't sell much the first time around).  Many developers actually went bankrupt so 40-50 years down the line wasn't a concern to them at all.  Nintendo doesn't put effort into VC because they don't believe there to be enough money there.  I pretty much never expect a VC to ever have most of Nintendo's game available for it. 

114
TalkBack / Re: Physical Games vs. Digital Games: The Face-Off
« on: February 20, 2014, 05:18:34 AM »
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On handhelds, what I've started doing is either buying games on sale - Atlus is quite good at this - or using retail discounts to make sure I *want* to keep a game, then I'll buy it digitally and trade it for what I've paid after I move the save over. I can usually get close to what I paid for it. (Example: I bought SMTIV on launch day for $33, bought the eShop version a couple of weeks ago for $30, and traded the physical in for $19. Net cost: $42.)


Sorry, I forgot SMT4 was $50 at launch.  Still seems like a lot of work for little gain.  Based on your #'s 33-19= 14 +30 = $44.  So you ended up with what you want for slightly cheaper.  It's closer after you factor in that you paid tax twice instead of once.  Even closer yet if you made a trip to a store specifically to either pick up SMT4 or trade it in.  That and no game save transfers. 

115
TalkBack / Re: Physical Games vs. Digital Games: The Face-Off
« on: February 20, 2014, 05:02:23 AM »
Digital all the way. Physical is for people who sell their games regularly, share them, or collect them.  None of that applies to me and the convenience of it trumps all.  Plus sales are steady and regular for what I want.


Physical is for people who will want to go back and revisit game experiences 10+ years from now when many of those games are unlikely to be re-released ever.  One of the systems I've started getting into recently is the Dreamcast.  It has alot of gems and reminds me alot of the Gamecube.  Some of those games have been re-released and some have not.  Since Dreamcast is a physical format it's easy (if costly) to track down all the games available for it.  Had it been a digital only console the only way I could get games for it would be to track down a dreamcast that had it downloaded to it and the owner was willing to part with their account info on the machine.  That or emulate which I strongly prefer not to do. 


Physical is also for people who care about replicating the initial experience.  I'm thinking of Donkey Konga/beats series.  The bongos are very unlikely to ever be re-released for any future Nintendo console.  As such, the game can be re-released but it won't have the same features and won't give the user the same experience in the future. 


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They are the only side with something to lose (more to the point, something that almost certainly will be lost eventually).


In the extreme, I'm going to die and nothing I have on earth will come with me.  To a lesser extreme, it may be difficult to find a working Gamecube in 25-30 years from now making physical games difficult to play.  To me, I'm still think that's a better alternative to digital which will most likely not make it that long. 


But I do disagree with the point in general.  When great games are no longer playable on any format, all gamers lose.  The digital generation may not know what is lost yet, or care that it's lost initially but I think alot of those gamers will eventually miss games that they enjoyed that they can no longer play.  When I was in college, I bought/played/sold everything.  At one point I had purchased >100 Gamecube games but owned <5.  I was a machine at getting rid of them quickly to recover as much of the original cost as possible (obviously money was tight).  7/8 years after getting rid of many of those games (and not thinking twice when I did) I began to miss the experience that many of those games brought me and my friends (many of who will play Gamecube games with me but have no desire to pick up new systems).  Those games define a time in my life and experiences that I (and my friends) can easily go back and experience and have a great time.  I guess I've reached a point in my life where I feel new games are not necessarily better than old games and having the old games available is important.  If there was a future (other than emulation) that all games could be reproduced digitally than I would probably be less concerned about physical/digital debate. 


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On handhelds, what I've started doing is either buying games on sale - Atlus is quite good at this - or using retail discounts to make sure I *want* to keep a game, then I'll buy it digitally and trade it for what I've paid after I move the save over. I can usually get close to what I paid for it. (Example: I bought SMTIV on launch day for $33, bought the eShop version a couple of weeks ago for $30, and traded the physical in for $19. Net cost: $42.)


I don't want to be rude, but I'm kind of dumbfounded by your example.  You "waited" for a digital sale, but ended up having more money in the digital copy than if you bought day 1 digital.  The only way your system is financially better is if it assumes that you sell all physical copies and don't convert them to digital (at a loss) very often because you don't want to "keep" the game.  But then again, the opportunity to sell if you don't want a game is one of the big pluses you'll be losing in the future since digital doesn't allow you the option to see if you want to "keep" the game.  So it seems to me that you like having both physical/digital available and deciding (based on your preferences) which format to choose for each game. 


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The storage solution isn't so bad for Nintendo people since they use existing standards - USB hard drives and SD cards. I paid $5 for a Y cable to use a little 500GB pocket drive I picked up a few years back for my WiiU, and I got a 64GB SD card on sale for $40 for Boxing Day. I'm about to drop $110 on a similar sized card for my Vita and will be doing it with teeth gritted so hard they'll snap in half.


Comparing Nintendo's crappy solution to a worse solution doesn't make it better.  Proprietary hardware always sucks and should be scrapped.  PS3 is the gold standard.  Simply plug in a laptop hard drive.  No secondary power supply to power to have (or Y cable using up both of your USB ports so you can't charge a pro controller).  No planning to figure out how to either hide the additional box or make it fit in a stand.  Cheapest prices available.  It's been awhile since I've looked, but I'm sure I've seen 1 TB drives for <$60.  Not withstanding, most people have had laptops before, it's usually easy to find a drive and re-purpose it to the PS3 for a net cost of $0 (which is what I did).  It just seems silly to me.  Nintendo wants to be the cheapest but hidden costs like this negate the cheap factor (except for low powered hardware which you'll still have).     

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TalkBack / Re: Physical Games vs. Digital Games: The Face-Off
« on: February 19, 2014, 08:32:04 PM »
I don't understand all this talk of inability to transfer purchases when all downloadable games on Wii and DSi could be transferred to their respective successors. All my Wii downloads transferred easily to my Wii U, and my DSiWare went from DSi to 3DS, and then transferred again to my 3DS XL along with my many 3DS eShop titles.


We'll see where Nintendo's O/S goes as well as as where their account system goes.  Both of those things are very important to me before I would be willing to invest in Nintendo downloadable games frequently.  The Wii games that are either aren't bought again for the Wii U or are not re-released (Wiiware, VC games that don't get rereleased) are probably gone on future consoles because I don't see future iterations having a Wiimode.  Now that Wii U is the base of future O/S systems I would guess that 3DS/DSI software is in danger of becoming extinct. 

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As for Ian's claim that there's some kind of remote kill switch, that may be true of some other services, but with Nintendo's systems, as long as they're still on your system and the system works, you will be able to play those games regardless of anything Nintendo does.


As a platform, steam is becoming more and more appealing (even as a physical guy).  That said, I can't see a time where I don't have a PC.  I could see a time where I don't need to buy the next console.  I'm 33 years old, and while I love my PS3, I'm not that enticed by the PS4.  While I don't regret buying a Wii U, the appeal of a successor is waning on me. 


How Nintendo approaches the account system is a big deal.  Now if my Wii U breaks and I choose not to have Nintendo repair it (at a significant cost) I lose those games.  But what if I chose to have the Wii U be my last console ever?  Nintendo will only repair Wii U's for so long.  Nintendo will only allow Wii U's online for so long.  So while that date is significantly out there (10-15 years) there is a kill date for people that don't decide to make the next $400, $450, $500 or more investment in Nintendo hardware.  The reason Steam is so appealing is because I can't see ever not having a PC.  So the future investment is basically $0.  The future investment to access Nintendo games is potentially several hundred (and maybe even thousands of dollars as time moves forward). 


That may be a small deal to you, but the Snes is my favorite console ever and it is approaching 23 years old and I can easily track down treasures for it.  I have a functioning Coleco that is 32 years old.  Maybe it's because I love retro gaming, but longevity is very important to me as a game player, because I've come to realize games that are once good are always good and worth a replay at some point. 

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Does Nintendo's eShop infrastructure need to be improved? Absolutely. They need to expand their account system so that you can move between systems without jumping through a ton of hoops, and tweak a few other things, and I'm confident that they will. Nintendo has steadily improved their online offerings over time, and while it's happened far more slowly than it should have, I don't doubt they'll get to that point in time.


I think the standardized O/S piece is as important as the standardized account piece (as mentioned above).  Because how else will I be able to play NSMBU (if I bought it download, which I didn't) on future hardware once Nintendo stops repairing Wii U's. 

117
TalkBack / Re: Watch Dogs Delayed for Wii U
« on: February 11, 2014, 07:48:15 AM »
While this is certainly another blow for the WiiU, I think it's also related to the weird, fragile state of the game industry right now and the Trojan horses of new consoles that promise to reinvigorate flagging sales but actually just greatly increase the amount of work a AAA game takes, and also the extra resources needed for two or three differently spec'ed versions.


I'm skeptical that costs are really increasing that much from PS3 to PS4 development.  I think that's just an excuse that developers that have games that miss the market, sell poorly and lose money use.


http://gamasutra.com/view/news/194029/Nextgen_game_development_costs_will_stay_the_samefor_now.php


http://techreport.com/news/24430/ea-ps4-to-raise-game-development-costs-5-10


Computer games have been 1080p and scalable forever and you don't hear about their crippling budgets.  PS4/Xbox ONE architecture should make it easier to port between the two and the steam platform.  Not that costs will increase, just that I think the real transition was to HD. 

118
Minecraft is available on almost everything (PC/Kindle/Apple/xbox/PS3).  Surely any Wii U consumer has some product that can play the game.  I'm not saying I wouldn't mind seeing it on Wii U (I would).  But it's not going to do jack for Wii U sales. 

119
Considering the Question of "Which Consoles do you Own." and "What was your first Console" are pretty common survey question Sony probably knows what its talking about.


I own a PS3, about 80 games, and a bunch of PSN games and I've never taken a Sony survey.  I never took a Nintendo survey either before clubnintendo. 

120
Nintendo home consoles have been down for a while (excluding Wii).  Certainly a lack of n64 sales didn't lead to poor ps2 sales or a lack of cube sales leading to fewer ps 3 sales. I do think handhelds are more geared to children and there may be some truth that previous ds/3ds owners could move to sony/Microsoft home consoles. I think the 3ds is still selling great despite nintendo chopping the sales figure.

But maybe that's what they are concerned of. A child that gets hooked on tablets instead of a 3ds may not make the home console transition. They may be worried about the trend than think its an issue right now.

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1. There will be more powerful hardware. Maybe not pushing the limits of technology over profitability, but more powerful is a given.

Obviously I'm talking comparatively. We may get PS4 power in 10 years if Nintendo hasn't moved from video games at that time.

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3. More hardware options increases the likelyhood of a hybrid, not lessens it, and there is no way they are doing a yearly hardware upgrade. Apple sells 10 million iPhones a year @ $500-$700 each, subsidized, that is how the hardware is profitable. Nintendo will likely release a powerful enough console, and a portable handheld. After time and sales slow, they may release a budget console, and maybe they release a hybrid to satisfy a slightly different market, or maybe the budget console and the portable together equal the hybrid, and all of this is sustainable because they all run on NOS.

Have you ever seen an iphone?  IPhones sell between 100 and 200 subsidized. And I was referring mainly to the tablet. Apple has sold > 100 million iPad at 500 .  It is rumored they have a margin of at least40% while Microsoft/Sony run negative console margins. I think Nintendo would like to be categorized as a tablet from a hardware margin perspective. Plus most people use the analogy of a tablet becoming more like a console as a reason to move toward the hybrid model.

I look at it this way.
Scenario A. My friend says I bought this awesome 300 dollar handheld video game player. My first thought is I hope it was made of solid gold because that's a lot of money to pay for a handheld.

Scenario b. My friend tells me he bought an awesome tablet for 300. My first thought is tell me more about it. I've been looking st buying an ipad and 300 is <500.

I don't want that per se I just don't think Nintendo is going to do what I want as a consumer.

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I know its not a tablet replacement. But the form factor is trending into tablet territory. I think their next iteration will basically be a lower spec iPad with lower resolution with dpad and buttons on the sides. To me that's not a huge jump from the 2ds which utilizes one screen (divided by plastic). 

And I admitted I could be wrong. I'm just not encouraged by where Nintendo feels their failures are. I definately get the feeling they all think they are smarter than everybody and that makes them above listening to consumer criticism. The power question - their response, power isn't relative next question. The first party question - we adequately supplied enough titles. Whats the core of your business - getting people that don't play games to buy Nintendo hardware. Why wasnt Nintendoland =Wii Sports, multiplayer was equal but single player lacking. That's why it failed to generate the Wii Sports type interest. Whats your biggest failure as a company - e xplaing our product to our consumers.

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I think the successor to current consoles is a Nintendo tablet. I think they are embracing that model. I think the 2DS was a first run tablet replacement for the 3ds. I think they'll drop the divider (one screen) and try to minimize size on future versions. They could either drop the L & R buttons or go Genesis 6 button style. If they make a tablet I fully expect them to embrace annual hardware.

People are telling them to make tablet games, and i think they will.  It will just be on their hardware instead of on apple hardware. I think they see competing in the tablet market (where margins on hardware are high) as favorable to competing in the console industry. They think they will find a niche by releasing cheaper tablets than Apple with better core video game controls and releasing an extensive amount of backcatalog games on the tablet.

I don't want that and I could be 100% wrong, but I think they adore the Apple model and feel they are niche in video games.

@Adrock I know you grabbed my quote and not Miyamoto's , I just want to be clear that I don't believe they have enough 1st party games, that's just my interpretation of their comments.

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12/31/15 could be a potential date for either a replacement for Wii U or 3DS.  If sales are still strong I don't believe they will replace the 3DS at that time. 


Things I picked up from the Q&A.


Don't expect powerful hardware..... pretty much ever.  They've fully embraced software over hardware and aren't going back.  When asked to clarify the power to the market Genyo said, " Whether a machine is powerful or not only has meaning in the context of whether that can express itself in terms of gameplay to consumers, and I therefore do not intend to go into fine detail about the specific numbers. I apologize for not directly answering your question, but it is my personal belief that explanations of such a nature have little relevance to consumers."


So hardware power is not relevant to you.  Stop asking for more powerful hardware. 


Don't expect M&A...... for now.  It seems the previous openness to M&A was due to keeping options open rather than any targets.  Iwata, "Currently, our video game dedicated platform business is reaching a transition stage in several different meanings, and we would like to have the option of using our shares for M&A purposes. We will not cling to this option for a long time, and when the transition stage ends, retirement of shares would be one option. "


The buyback shares will probably be retired. 


No hybrid.... rather lots of hardware under the same O/S.  Iwata, "Still, I am not sure if the form factor (the size and configuration of the hardware) will be integrated. In contrast, the number of form factors might increase. Currently, we can only provide two form factors because if we had three or four different architectures, we would face serious shortages of software on every platform. To cite a specific case, Apple is able to release smart devices with various form factors one after another because there is one way of programming adopted by all platforms. Apple has a common platform called iOS."


There are two ways he could be looking at this.  1.  They could have various handhelds (I.E. console level handheld, middle powered handheld, cheap handheld) or they could have an annual release of hardware like Apple does.  So you have Nintendo console 1, Nintendo console 2 the next year will upgrades.  The year after that Nintendo console 3.  Software is interesting then.  Would all software be playable under all models (scalable) or would they use an IOS model where Ipad 2 can play most games but you would need an Ipad 5 to play intensive games.  I tend to think the latter.  This is why 2015 could be the Wii U replacement since they are building off that O/S.  The Wii U could still be applicable for a while after being replaced if only a few of the future games can't play on the Wii U. 


Nintendo isn't going to say it, but I expect a reduction in the manpower at Nintendo.  Iwata, "s for the QOL (Quality of Life)-improving platform, I made some slides which explain how Nintendo came up with this idea. These are examples of something ordinary turning into a hit product with the power of applications. In 1980, we released “GAME & WATCH,” which, I am told, was an idea that was born from watching people use calculators. “GAME & WATCH” was made by adding an application to a watch, and this is the origin of the current handheld games. "


This leads me to believe they are not entirely sure what they are doing with QOL, but just know they want to do something fitness related.  But what is interesting is this was in response to manpower.  It's well known Iwata doesn't want to lay off, but he hasn't committed to hiring additional people to support his QOL platform either which is supposedly a big future endeavor.  So I expect that resources will be allocated to QOL, fewer games will be made, but they'll mask it by having those games playable on console/handheld hardware so it looks to console owners like at least as many games are being made. 


Two other quotes that suggest Nintendo is convinced the video game industry is shrinking and they are inclined to shrink with it. 


Miyamoto, " Therefore, I feel that we have managed to overcome the challenge of releasing enough first-party franchises on Wii U. "


The Wii U was well supported from a software perspective.  Don't expect future iterations to get more support. 
Couldn't find the exact quote, but Iwata said something similar to they were buying back shares because they couldn't give investors the types of dividends they had in the past. 


Expect Nintendo software to become more basic (lowest common denominator).  Iwata, "The reason we talked about such points today was because there are many consumers who are perhaps not so interested in games but are passionate about trying something interesting, and, in expanding the gaming population, we are considering how we can get our messages across to these consumers, create ties with them and develop an environment in which it is easy for them to participate." 


Expect the focus to continue to be on non-gamers and somehow replicating the success of the Wii. 


I know some people are taking snipets out to get excited about what they perceive as the new Nintendo.  But it appears to me like they are going to amplify all the things that core gamers aren't excited about at Nintendo.

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Nintendo Gaming / Re: "Mergers & Acquisitions are an option” Iwata said.
« on: February 02, 2014, 10:25:49 PM »
Now, it is just about making a profit with stocks...which I am not saying is bad...but it means that many investors don't really care what Nintendo does as long as they make money off the stock.

Nintendo only cares about making profit too.  Did Nintendo reinvest all those Wii/DS profits back into game making?  It appears to me they were too busy high fiving each other and approving big bonuses for their work.

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I have been reading Nintendo's response to the investors and their financial reports, and I am impressed that Nintendo is finally acting and beginning to see a need for change.  I am hopeful that Nintendo will strive for Nintendo style change and not pushed to something different.

Can you really have your cake and eat it too?  You're saying it's all the investors fault and then you say that you are impressed that Nintendo knows they need to change?  I guess the difference between me and you is I'm not impressed at all with the ways Nintendo is coming up with change. 

Investors get a bad rap.  Yes, alot are idiots (as are alot of people that we all know), but by far the largest portion of investments are for retirements which means investors are incentivized to consider the long term outcomes of a company.  Almost daily there is an article about Nintendo being out of touch or irrelevant to gaming.  Or an article about how much Nintendo is missing sales and profit targets and may need to start laying off employees.  The industry doesn't believe in Nintendo, how can you expect investors?  Heck, Nintendo doesn't even believe in themselves stating that they need to keep bringing irregular hardware to the market.  Why should that matter?  People love the games, not your hardware.  Your hardware is part of the reason you're in this predicament. 

Nintendo has had something like 4 straight years of operating loss from core products and warned that their will be a fifth year.  The last couple years of the Wii were a disaster and the Wii U is a failure.  Those failures are on management, not the investors.  If Nintendo had sold 9 million Wii Us this year, investors would be happy kittens not concerned with mobile devices.  It would appear to me that due to their recent financial failures, Nintendo is both a short term and long term investment risk. 

I love Nintendo games.  I've always hated their business practices.  That's why I think it's interesting that Nintendo fans are always adamant that Nintendo is doing it the right way and they better not change their approach.  Nintendo is less consumer friendly than Apple and certainly is less consumer friendly than competing consoles.  The reality is I've dealt with them because I spend way to much on video games and I love their games.  If they are forced to be more consumer friendly I won't shed a tear.  Anybody who acquires Nintendo IPs will know how important it is to get those games right or lose the value of the investment as the Nintendo fans leave and nobody is left to buy the games.  Miyamoto is going to retire soon anyway.  I can't really think of another person at Nintendo who has star power and will ensure that Nintendo's development future is bright.  I'm unsure of Nintendo's future (especially their future in my household).  And I bought a Wii U even knowing that it was tanking badly at $350 before the pricedrop. 

I'm their target audience and I'm becoming disenfranchised with their decisions.  Nintendo management and their investors should be scared at their future.  I mean what are we talking about here?  Movies, fitness equipment?  I get Nintendo's a business and needs to make money, but I don't care about anything they do unless it's related to video games.  If they have to find another way to survive they might as well not survive.  I mean let's be honest here.  If Nintendo moves into fitness and makes money over there, but continues to lose money in the console business, do you really expect them to subsidize the console business so you can get your games?  I certainly don't. 

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