Gaming Forums => General Gaming => Topic started by: TJ Spyke on March 26, 2013, 12:53:40 PM
Title: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: TJ Spyke on March 26, 2013, 12:53:40 PM
So Square Enix released their financials today, and one thing I noticed that is further proof that gaming budgets are getting way out of hand. The re-boot of Tomb Raider has already sold 3.4 million copies (not even counting digital sales) since launching March 4, but the company still says the game has failed to meet sales expectations.
Overal, Square Enix expest to post a loss of ¥13 billion ($138 million) for the fiscal year ending March 31. This has led to long time CEO/President Yoichi Wada to resign, he had been CEO since Square and Enix merged in 2003 (before that he had been CEO of Square since December 2000). He will be replaced by by former company director Yosuke Matsuda.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on March 26, 2013, 01:20:21 PM
I really with the Pietriots crew would make a new Wall of Shame series that focuses on companies that have went under or have posted severe financial failures (EA, SE).
Seriously - someone build a wall comprised of SE releases for Nintendo systems in the past five or ten years.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: broodwars on March 26, 2013, 01:29:10 PM
Have we ever got a confirmation that those are confirmed sales numbers & not sales targets? Because Square-Enix has been pretty vague on that.
Either way, Tomb Raider is an awesome game made by extremely talented developers, but no one game (or even 3 games in this case) can make up for all the losses Square-Enix makes on all the crap it makes but doesn't manage to sell from Japan. Seriously, how much money has S-E lost on Final Fantasy 14 by this point, and out of pride they keep throwing even more money at? Dragon Quest X has apparently been underperforming, though Square-Enix isn't going to throw its DQ developers under the bus like they have their Eidos branch.
I like the Final Fantasy series (yes, even the 13 games), but that's seriously all Square-Enix has going for them from their Japanese developers these days and they can't expect their handful of Western games to pick up all the slack in a month or two.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on March 26, 2013, 01:31:17 PM
For reference, here's their last two years worth of output for Nintendo systems in the US.
Bust-a-Move Universe - Ehh. Fortune Street - Interesting, but totally niche title. Theatrhythm Final Fantasy - Pretty popular, but a rhythm game well after that craze died. Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance - Wow. This was probably the second most "last played" game I saw at the convention I went to over the weekend (first being Monster Hunter). Heroes of Ruin - Fun game, but man SE did little to actually sell this game. I had to go to eight stores before I could find it. Hopefully, the upcoming digital release helps sales out.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: TJ Spyke on March 26, 2013, 01:37:08 PM
Have we ever got a confirmation that those are confirmed sales numbers & not sales targets? Because Square-Enix has been pretty vague on that.
Either way, if they say that 3.4 million copies in less than a month is lower than they expected, that is a problem. Even taking out the cut from retailers and console manufacturers, that is still well over $100 million they have made from it.
But like UncleBob said, their support for Nintendo systems has been pretty weak overall. Hell, they can't even be bothered to publish the Dragon Quest games themselves (Nintendo does it).
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: broodwars on March 26, 2013, 02:00:31 PM
Either way, if they say that 3.4 million copies in less than a month is lower than they expected, that is a problem. Even taking out the cut from retailers and console manufacturers, that is still well over $100 million they have made from it.
It makes a HUGE difference whether Square-Enix expected 3.4 million sales & Tomb Raider didn't meet it, or if Square-Enix expected 5-10 million sales & Tomb Raider "merely" sold 3.4 million.
But like UncleBob said, their support for Nintendo systems has been pretty weak overall. Hell, they can't even be bothered to publish the Dragon Quest games themselves (Nintendo does it).
And why should they? Dragon Quest is practically a flop outside Japan, which is the only territory where it's worth a damn. If I were Square-Enix, I wouldn't want to publish an almost-guaranteed bomb outside Japan either if someone else is willing to eat the loss instead.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Ian Sane on March 26, 2013, 03:20:01 PM
Square Enix is burning money in Japan and asking Eidios to make it up in America. Has Tomb Raider made back its budget because that's all the development team should be responsible for? It isn't fair to count the losses of other projects against this one game that has to "save" the company or whatever. Of course the prime skill of a corporate exec is shifting blame away from yourself so it would be unrealistic to expect Square Enix of Japan to admit that the company's woes are their own fault.
The ultimate budget problem with games these days is simply that every publisher wants their game to have Call of Duty sales. But there are very few "spots" per year for games with those kind of sales and too many games aiming for them. The concept of a niche game seems to not exist anymore in the minds of publishers as the mainstream dollar is too enticing. And naturally there is the assumption that to sell like Call of Duty one needs to have a huge budget. The whole thing becomes an arms race. And I don't think it's because graphic standards have gotten too high or gamers' expectations are too high but merely that publishers think that is the case. They can't make a lower budget game with narrower appeal because they can't help but see how much number one is getting and they want to be in that position. They can have all these beautiful paintings but they want the Mona Lisa, dammit, and will destroy themselves to get it.
I figure the whole thing is going to crash down real soon and the old guard like Square Enix, Capcom, Sega and, yes, Nintendo has turned into something so far removed from their golden years that I wouldn't miss them if they were gone, because they might as well have been for the last several years anyway (Nintendo less so than the others). Blow it all up and start over with new blood. Or at the very least may the situation become so dire so as to shake up these old companies and force them to be hungry again and get rid of some of the deadwood in their management. Pull your head out of your ass or suffocate.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: magicpixie on March 26, 2013, 06:24:25 PM
This is a link to what I presume are S-E's presentation slides:
The 9th slide shows that these are expected sales in fiscal year 2013(excluding digital download sales). As such, I do think it's disappointing that Sleeping Dogs and Tomb Raider haven't done better. I loved the hell out of both of them. Hitman was an ok game, but it was ultimately hurt by trying to straddle the line between appealing to the franchise's core base and broadening its audience, imo. Also, the marketing campaign for that game was absolutely brutal.
The point about FFXIV is valid, but I think from a corporate standpoint, it's understandable. FFXI made the company a lot of money, and if they can hit that same market twice, that's a market that they would be serving for the next decade with various updates... under the old MMO model. From the looks of things, the old MMO model may be over.
And I agree with Ian about publishers having unrealistic expectations/demands for their games and the gaming community.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Shaymin on March 26, 2013, 06:38:18 PM
FWIW, Dragon Quest X has already made back its development costs in Japan. Whatever happens with the localization, it'll be cheap enough that the usual DQ sales will be enough to cover those costs.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Adrock on March 26, 2013, 10:58:07 PM
Ironically, people give Nintendo **** for not pushing the technological envelope, but look at where the industry stands. Nintendo has been predicting this for years. Third parties want better and better hardware, but so many of them fail to take advantage of it without practically falling into financial ruin. I don't know how that helps anybody. Was Tomb Raider's budget worth it? I haven't played it yet. However, it cost the president/CEO of Square Enix his job and after this restructuring, many others will lose their jobs as well so I'd say, "No. No, it wasn't." As a consumer (even one who has yet to play the game), I'm leaning towards no. A high bar has been set for the series with this reboot though we're probably not going to see this kind of effort (and budget) from Square Enix except in extremely rare occasions (e.g. Final Fantasy). What's going to happen now? Either no sequel of the same overall quality or no sequel period. Kind of sucks either way.
Here we are in 2013. Companies that haven't opted out are forced to restructure to survive (and who knows if that will even work). For all the times it seems like Nintendo doesn't get it, there are times when they totally get it. Nintendo hit a rough patch due to some mismanagement (e.g. Wii limping through its last year or so, 3DS launch, Wii U drought), but I still think they're one of the better managed game companies out there. They're entire business model revolves around making back their investments in as little time as possible. They've done this starting with protecting their IPs, something Eidos did not do. Tomb Raider wouldn't have needed a complete reboot (and really, it's like third restart) if they didn't sully the franchise to begin with. Take Zelda for example. It's one of Nintendo's more costly games to produce, but it's a cash cow. It sells on its pedigree. There will always be people who buy it because they know that Nintendo isn't likely to release a bad Zelda game. I didn't even like Skyward Sword, but I can admit that it was a well-made game and because of that, I'm going to buy the next one.
I think a lot of companies can learn from Nintendo's example. You don't absolutely need super big budgets. Since the gaming industry is and will always be smaller than the film industry, these companies have to find another way; they have to focus on understanding their audience. If you break down what gaming is at its most basic level, it's interactivity. That's where its enjoyment comes from. There's a reason why a game like Mario Kart always sells well. There's no plot and the graphics aren't anything to write home about. However, even everyone's personal least favorite one is still pretty fun. Release consistently good products (don't rush them to market) and build up trust from consumers and you won't need inflated budgets. Sell millions, still a failure? You're doing it wrong.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: TJ Spyke on March 26, 2013, 11:13:40 PM
Ironically, people give Nintendo **** for not pushing the technological envelope, but look at where the industry stands. Nintendo has been predicting this for years. Third parties want better and better hardware, but so many of them fail to take advantage of it without practically falling into financial ruin. I don't know how that helps anybody. Was Tomb Raider's budget worth it? I haven't played it yet. However, it cost the president/CEO of Square Enix his job and after this restructuring, many others will lose their jobs as well so I'd say, "No. No, it wasn't." As a consumer (even one who has yet to play the game), I'm leaning towards no. A high bar has been set for the series with this reboot though we're probably not going to see this kind of effort (and budget) from Square Enix except in extremely rare occasions (e.g. Final Fantasy). What's going to happen now? Either no sequel of the same overall quality or no sequel period. Kind of sucks either way.
Like I said, though, the problem wasn't with Tomb Raider, or either of the other 2 singled-out Western releases for that matter. The problem is Square-Enix setting ridiculously high projections on these games assuming that they are going to be so massively successful that they make up for the EXTREME losses all their other Japanese projects have been incurring. There's no way that Tomb Raider hasn't made up its budget by now if you buy into that 3.4 million sold figure, but for some reason Square-Enix decided that game was going to make up for all the billions of yen they've lost on FF 14, Dragon Quest X, and other notable failures (or at least "underwhelmers").
Square-Enix set sales targets that there's no way these three games could ever hit, all for the sake of then blaming those games for their losses when it came time to explain things to the shareholders. It's almost nationalism at its business worst.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Adrock on March 27, 2013, 01:07:58 AM
Since the gaming industry is and will always be smaller than the film industry, these companies have to find another way; they have to focus on understanding their audience.
The film industry is bigger because it reaches a much wider audience due to the kind of entertainment it is. I don't see the video game industry ever becoming that pervasive. With all these games companies closing or restructuring, the film industry seems far more stable and sustainable. The games industry is still relatively young in comparison so it's still developing an identity. It just needs to collectively figure out a way to stabilize itself.
Many of these games companies are trying to make the equivalent of summer blockbusters which is admirable but misguided. It seems like they're trying to follow the movie industry's lead, but they're not the same. Games cost more when released, but the pool of people buying is much smaller. Does the higher cost balance out the smaller audience? Additionally, how do you market to them? I'd argue that it's more difficult to market games. Publishers can't market a game the same way a film distributor markets a movie. Selling a movie starring Ellen Page is easier than selling game featuring Ellen Page's voice and likeness. Games companies often use visuals and push bigger budgets to get prettier looking games (perhaps in a bid to legitimize itself?), but that only works some of the time. The bubble is going to pop, if it hasn't already. If their products are underperforming, they're doing something wrong.
The main point of my previous post was that Nintendo is a company that hasn't run into the same problems as these other companies because of how they conduct business. They focused on gameplay first simply due to the type of entertainment gaming provides. It amazes me that so many companies can see this work for Nintendo time after time yet still feel compelled to do the opposite. Sure, they don't have Mario and Zelda. At the same time, Nintendo didn't always have Mario and Zelda. Nintendo had to create Mario and Zelda and they earned the respect those series command.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Oblivion on March 27, 2013, 02:14:50 AM
Since the gaming industry is and will always be smaller than the film industry
Actually, for the last 8 years or so the video game industry has made more money than the film industry.
wat
I guess you don't remember all the news reported the first time it happened. In 2008 video games sold $32 billion worldwide, while movies sold $29 billion worldwide.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Spak-Spang on March 27, 2013, 03:49:06 AM
You know I remember people complaining about Nintendo "phoning" in games like Mario Party 18934 and what not. But you know each one of those games was enjoyable to play. They were pretty cheap for Nintendo to make and made a profit.
The thing is, when you are going to have a blockbuster be it a movie or game, you must have side projects to fund those bigger blockbusters. Don't assume that Blockbuster alone is enough. This is a very important business lesson that both the video game and movie industry can take home. For everyone Iron Man 3 and Zelda game that comes out...hugely expensive movies and games that take years to make, market and give to audiences, you need to have smaller budget games and movies to pay the bills so to speak.
Because, putting all your eggs in one basket and hoping for the Grand Slam...is foolish. Nintendo is pretty good about not putting all its eggs in one basket. The DS came out. Nintendo fed us a BS line about the 3 tiers Gameboy, Console and DS. That was bull. Nintendo wanted to rebrand its portable system, and create this new machine. But they were risking the market not calling the Gameboy, and they were not sure the console would succeed. So spin.
The Wii was underpowered to help Nintendo with the risk of a drastically different console and a fairly risky concept of motion controls. Even the Wii U is carefully designed to help Nintendo survive if it fails. The same is true with all its games. Nintendo only releases 1-2 big AAA games a year. And then they carefully spread out the other releases of smaller budget games throughout the year. But still they only push a new game published by Nintendo ever 2 months or so....sometimes 3. This is to help space out everything to maximize profitability...which should be the goal of all these companies.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Oblivion on March 27, 2013, 05:20:28 AM
Since the gaming industry is and will always be smaller than the film industry
Actually, for the last 8 years or so the video game industry has made more money than the film industry.
wat
I guess you don't remember all the news reported the first time it happened. In 2008 video games sold $32 billion worldwide, while movies sold $29 billion worldwide.
That was in 2008. You said the last 8 years, which I highly, highly doubt. Plus, the video game industry doesn't even have concrete numbers for sales (we have to rely on bullshit numbers from VG Charts or "shipped" units from the publishers themselves. I highly doubt that figure is accurate. At least in the film industry you can actually trust those numbers.
Also, I bet Avatar, The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, Inception, and The Hobbit might be swaying the numbers in a different direction. :P
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: NWR_insanolord on March 27, 2013, 05:31:13 AM
People in the industry have real numbers. The full NPD report gives exact figures for literally every game sold, but it costs thousands of dollars to access so we use the sample they give out for free. I don't think that figure was generated by outsiders; if I had to guess the numbers were compiled by the ESA, who would know exactly what sales were.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: MagicCow64 on March 27, 2013, 07:18:10 PM
Quote
I highly doubt that figure is accurate. At least in the film industry you can actually trust those numbers.
Also, I bet Avatar, The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, Inception, and The Hobbit might be swaying the numbers in a different direction. :P:
Actually you can't really trust the film industry either as far as overall P&L goes. Studio accounting is extremely byzantine and often intentionally masks both profitability and unprofitability, depending on the tax impetus or spin necessity. There are also the phantom marketing costs, which is becoming a similar component of the game industry.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Oblivion on March 28, 2013, 01:01:10 AM
Hollywood accounting has nothing to do with how much money they get from sales. That has to do with whether or not they actually make a profit.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: MagicCow64 on March 28, 2013, 09:25:51 PM
Yeah, I said P&L; wasn't the original quibble about whether the game industry actually makes more than the film industry?
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Louieturkey on March 29, 2013, 08:23:47 PM
More confusion ensues. Crystal Dynamics is now saying that Tomb Raider is the best selling launch in the TR series and that it's the most successful 2013 game so far this year. This really makes me wonder what SE was thinking in regards to sales. Did they really think it could reach Call of Duty levels?
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on March 29, 2013, 09:09:33 PM
Is it a question of sales vs expectations or sales vs. budget?
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: pokepal148 on March 29, 2013, 09:14:25 PM
it's a question of where is the industry going, if square enix was expecting, what i'd call a third tier franchise compared to the other things they have, their idiots
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on March 29, 2013, 09:57:26 PM
*snicker*
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: pokepal148 on March 29, 2013, 10:11:52 PM
Is it a question of sales vs expectations or sales vs. budget?
I do believe I asked that very question very early on in this thread... :cool;
It's Square-Enix trying to blame the West for one major Western game and two minor ones not being able to bail them out from the colossal debt they created with the disaster known as Final Fantasy 14 Online (not to mention several notable projects they just won't get out the door like Vs. 13). As Giant Bomb put it, Eidos has held up their end of the bargain ever since they were acquired. It's the Japanese side of Square-Enix that consistently fails.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Do_What on March 30, 2013, 09:30:58 AM
NPD still doesn't have EXACT sales numbers. There is still some fudgework going on where they look at shipping stuff and do some sampling out because unless ever retailer was hooked into a live inventory database that NPD had access too you just can't know. Not only that, but there are some outlets that don't report to NPD. So it further muddies the waters. The sales stuff is all estimates, both in games and in movies. Most entertainment mediums have the problem of not knowing how much of the product actually gets to consumers, most publishers only have access to how much product they put out. I don't think Square is putting all their failings on western games. Those just happen to be the biggest named releases they've had recently. Just thinking about the titles I've heard of it's been Hitman, sleeping dogs, ffxiii ii, and tomb raider. I think they expected the western stuff to do better than it did and it is a disappointment to them. Square is fully aware of how jacked up ffxiv. But that's not as important to them right now. Companies with investors run on a stupid quarterly mindset and so they literally only care about what happened most recently. Most recently, Tomb Raider didn't sell as many copies as they expected, even after they spent more money on marketing than they had for any of their previous western made titles. They're bummed. It's a failure. But they're experiencing what happened to PC games about ten years ago. PC games were selling as well as they ever had, the sales weren't dropping at all on PC games, but console games took a leap in sales that the industry didn't really expect. PC games never followed suit so we kept talking about how they were dying, when they were just not keeping up. We're going to see more and more of this next gen. Certain titles will push sales well beyond what we're used too, and other companies will attempt to match that and end up failing miserably. Except that if they had tried to make a very similar game with slightly less cash and slightly less expectations they'd be fine. If the industry as a whole doesn't look at sales estimates and start talking about how everything is failing in a certain segment just because it's not keeping pace with the few titles that are well above average, then we'll be okay. If they do what they are want to do and judge every game by the outliers then we're going to continue having discussions about how selling millions of copies of a game isn't good enough.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: TJ Spyke on March 30, 2013, 11:22:05 AM
NPD is reliable because they track about 90% of all retailers.
And movie ticket sales are exact.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: ymeegod on March 30, 2013, 01:09:00 PM
90% LOL.
NPD only tracks over 900 retailers WW and there's over one million retailers in the states alone. Since last year NPD has added Walmart but there's plenty of video game chains that don't report to NPD like Fry, Gamerush, ect.
Do What statement is correct, they estimate video game sales. No one can give you an exact number because there's tons of chains out there that don't bother to share their numbers.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on March 30, 2013, 01:22:05 PM
NPD doesn't track 90% of retailers, they track 90% of sales.
Between Walmart, GameStop, Target, Amazon, and Toys R Us, they likely get information regarding sells across more than a third of the market. And that's just five of the 900 retailers.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: ymeegod on March 30, 2013, 01:47:11 PM
Actually Toy's R US haven't been an partner since 2008.
Walmart started sometime last year. Think Best Buy is one of their partners as well. Amazon has been for years now. Not sure about Target? Never heard of them using NPD?
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on March 30, 2013, 02:21:10 PM
I thought NPD picked TRU back up like, two years ago or so... am I crazy?
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: TJ Spyke on March 30, 2013, 05:33:13 PM
Basically TRU stopped reporting to NPD at about the sametime Walmart agreed to start providing data.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on March 30, 2013, 06:12:09 PM
It's possible that TRU just doesn't submit video game sales info to NPD...
But here's an article from last year of a TRU exec citing NPD numbers to show the growth of TRU in the toy selling industry: http://www.nbcnews.com/business/toys-r-us-offer-reservation-program-hot-toys-994189
Seems weird he'd cite NPD if they don't submit sales data to them.
In 2011, NPD added Toys R Us' UK branch to their sales data: http://content.yudu.com/Library/A1t2ga/ToynPlaythingsJulyis/resources/6.htm
I can't seem to find anything directly saying that NPD picked up the main TRU branch here in the states, but I could have sworn they woo'd them back...
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: SixthAngel on April 02, 2013, 01:19:27 AM
Is it a question of sales vs expectations or sales vs. budget?
I think it is a combination of super high budgets and the big risk of the video game industry. Investors need huge returns when putting in that kind of money and the unpredictability of the video game industry, at least compared to other industries, means even bigger returns. I think a lot of these games break even, but unfortunately breaking even isn't close to good enough.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Do_What on April 02, 2013, 09:01:50 AM
I can't wait for investor culture to die out. It won't be anytime soon, probably not in my lifetime, but it'll die out eventually, because it's not actually sustainable, and that'll be good for everyone.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on April 02, 2013, 09:19:30 AM
You're hoping society goes back to a system of patronage (specifically, arts patronage)?
Sounds good, in theory. In fact, nothing is stopping that from happening now. We're starting to see a bit of that with Kickstarter - except that the system is set up so that you have to give your donors rewards (Well, there's usually the $1 level where you get a "thank you"...). I'm curious if a popular idea that requires a large budget could succeed with Kickstarter without giving any kind of tangible rewards.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Do_What on April 02, 2013, 09:57:05 AM
We're seeing it in better examples than kickstarter. Investor culture is the idea that if you're not growing you're dying, when in reality making a steady profit is actually good enough. Some companies are starting to buck against the idea that if they don't make more profit than they did last quarter then they're failing as a company. It doesn't make sense to some people that their stock price goes down after a quarter where they make more profit (not just sold more or took in more money but also spent a lot more, they grossed more than they had ever before) than they had before. The idea that you can make money and have your company lose value is something that doesn't make sense. I'm not for the dissolution of big companies. They have their place, but they don't need to operate on this insane quarter to quarter scenario.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: oohhboy on April 02, 2013, 10:33:54 AM
The fact a lot of investors have extremely poor grasp of economics doesn't help. Asking a company to perpetually grow is asking them to violate the laws of physics, not happening. It is an incredibly self destructive system that fails the moment you hit those physical limits or the limits come to you during recessions.
It also doesn't help that a lot of companies exists mostly as Brands than actual products. Considering some of the time the marketing budget excceds the development budget by several times, they aren't selling the game at all, they are selling the marketing. Most of it is made up of really dumb, blunt expensive marketing like weeks long ad blocks on TV or buying out multiple website ad space. A lot of these games don't need that kind of coverage since gamers effectively market to ourselves through social circles and the internet.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on April 02, 2013, 11:16:42 AM
Many investors live by the motto "As long as there's competition, there's room for growth."
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: magicpixie on April 09, 2013, 04:02:17 PM
Square-Enix have clarified their issues with sales numbers for these games.
Lulz at S-E expecting Tomb Raider to sell between 5-6 million units in under a month.... and that was a conservative estimate!
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Ceric on April 09, 2013, 04:13:13 PM
A little late to part of this party but, Wal-Mart started reporting to NPD. Are they doing that bad? Wal-Mart is known for being hyper-protective of any of their data.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: pokepal148 on April 10, 2013, 02:08:31 PM
Lulz at S-E expecting Tomb Raider to sell between 5-6 million units in under a month.... and that was a conservative estimate!
So like I said earlier, Square-Enix had ridiculous expectations that had nothing to do with the game's budget, which the game has likely already made-up. S-E was just banking on Tomb Raider to sell in ridiculous numbers to bail out their other failing projects.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Ceric on April 10, 2013, 03:08:12 PM
I'm going to say this right now. 5-6 Million CONSERVATIVE is well crazy unless it was the Tomb Raider game AND an interactive porn simulator.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Louieturkey on April 10, 2013, 03:42:54 PM
The only way they'd selling that many in a month would be if it was Call of Duty: Tomb Raider edition.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Ian Sane on April 10, 2013, 05:06:00 PM
If I was making a game and I knew that the sales expectations were effectively impossible to make I would just go all out and make exactly the game I wanted to make because, **** it, I'll never reach the goal no matter what so it's not like I need to worry about potentially niche ideas hurting sales. You're probably going to get canned either way and better to do so making the game you want to make rather than some boardroom designed schlock that wouldn't reach the sales expectation no matter how focus group tested it was. You've got nothing to lose.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: UncleBob on April 10, 2013, 07:57:45 PM
So like I said earlier, Square-Enix had ridiculous expectations that had nothing to do with the game's budget, which the game has likely already made-up. S-E was just banking on Tomb Raider to sell in ridiculous numbers to bail out their other failing projects.
This still doesn't answer that though. S/E had stupid expectations. We can all agree on that. But what did they base those expectations on? Without knowing anything behind the scenes, I could easily see something like:
Developer: We need $50 Million to make this game. S/E bean counters: Hm. We spent $10 million on the last DQ game and sold one million copies. You want five times that. Can you sell five times as many copies? Developer: ...ummm... sure! We're awesome. Why not?
Sadly, companies tend to not be very open about things like development costs... so we'll likely never know. I don't think that's really what happened - I'd say the truth is somewhere in between. Something, somewhere is nagging at me that the budget of this game had something to do with the expectations placed upon it.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: pokepal148 on April 10, 2013, 09:57:58 PM
If I was making a game and I knew that the sales expectations were effectively impossible to make I would just go all out and make exactly the game I wanted to make because, **** it, I'll never reach the goal no matter what so it's not like I need to worry about potentially niche ideas hurting sales. You're probably going to get canned either way and better to do so making the game you want to make rather than some boardroom designed schlock that wouldn't reach the sales expectation no matter how focus group tested it was. You've got nothing to lose.
except your job genius... any more bright ideas?
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: nickmitch on April 10, 2013, 10:14:32 PM
A little late to part of this party but, Wal-Mart started reporting to NPD. Are they doing that bad? Wal-Mart is known for being hyper-protective of any of their data.
NPD reporting helps everyone involved, so probably not.
EDIT: Just checked, 2013 operating income: $27.8B; 2012: $26.6B.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: Ian Sane on April 11, 2013, 12:58:31 PM
If I was making a game and I knew that the sales expectations were effectively impossible to make I would just go all out and make exactly the game I wanted to make because, **** it, I'll never reach the goal no matter what so it's not like I need to worry about potentially niche ideas hurting sales. You're probably going to get canned either way and better to do so making the game you want to make rather than some boardroom designed schlock that wouldn't reach the sales expectation no matter how focus group tested it was. You've got nothing to lose.
except your job genius... any more bright ideas?
Uh, what do you think "you're probably going to get canned either way" means? The assumption is your job is already lost.
Title: Re: Sell millions, still a failure?
Post by: pokepal148 on April 11, 2013, 02:54:38 PM
If I was making a game and I knew that the sales expectations were effectively impossible to make I would just go all out and make exactly the game I wanted to make because, **** it, I'll never reach the goal no matter what so it's not like I need to worry about potentially niche ideas hurting sales. You're probably going to get canned either way and better to do so making the game you want to make rather than some boardroom designed schlock that wouldn't reach the sales expectation no matter how focus group tested it was. You've got nothing to lose.
except your job genius... any more bright ideas?
Uh, what do you think "you're probably going to get canned either way" means? The assumption is your job is already lost.
yes but one is a surefire way to get fired and have your game not see the light of day
the other is a way to have one last released game on your portfolio for when you do get fired...(and keep your job until the game is released, every paycheck counts)
