Post by: RickPowers on September 11, 2006, 10:16:07 AM
There's a screenshot of an ad floating around. Manpower is hiring 150 people to work at North Bend to package Wii. How many Wii units could 150 people package? Depends on how long the contract is ... but that's not the point. If they're ready to package, Wii is finished. So could you use this to predict a launch date? Assuming a standard eight-hour shift, and assuming a five-day work week ... the only variable is how many they could package in an hour.
150 x 8 x 5 x UnitsPerHour = 6000 x UPH.
If the average were 20 units per hour (which is probably conservative, at three minutes per unit ... a minute per unit is more likely), 120,000 units a week. In 10 weeks, they would have 1.2 Million units ready. This is just for the US, assume Japan has their own packaging staff.
There are other factors to consider. Is the plant running seven days a week? Is there overtime? Are these people temps to supplement Nintendo's existing workforce. The answer to all of those questions is YES, based on my knowledge of how Nintendo operates.
The math shows that at a minimum, Nintendo could launch in 10 weeks with 1.2 Million units. That's Mid-November at the latest. Assuming that these additional variables could be used to reduce time-to-market, perhaps to as low as six weeks, Mid-October becomes a possibility. Regardless, the math also proves pretty conclusively that a surprise Tokyo Game Show launch (as has been rumored) is highly unlikely, but possible with lower quantity.
But what if my theory that you could package the units in an average of a minute a piece were true?
If that could be accomplished, Nintendo could launch with a Million units (1.08 Million, to be precise) in THREE WEEKS, with no other change in variables.
Just a little something to chew on today ...
Post by: UncleBob on September 11, 2006, 10:23:05 AM
Post by: Kairon on September 11, 2006, 10:46:25 AM
~Carmine M. Red
Kairon@aol.com
Post by: JonLeung on September 11, 2006, 11:20:29 AM
However, it would be nice if the launch date was "this particular date at the latest, but sooner if we finish packing before then". Confusion would certainly arise, though.
Post by: RickPowers on September 11, 2006, 11:21:03 AM
After all, it's just kind of fun to look at the magical numbers and say, hey, they could really launch any time they chose. TGS is most certainly not going to happen, but just about any time after that is just a matter of launch quantities.
Post by: Spak-Spang on September 11, 2006, 11:40:59 AM
So, if Nintendo is packaging the product in US and Japan, you must also assume they are packaging the system as well in Europe.
And remember Rick's estimates don't assume any other variables. Like he mentioned overtime, current employees, manchinary possibly used to assist packaging, Possible packaging being done sooner, and added personal are for a very specific reason.
This is all good news, and you can't speculate what it all means...but it does mean Nintendo will be ready for a launch, whenever they decide to launch.
Post by: Caliban on September 11, 2006, 12:06:38 PM
I have to agree with Rick though in his conclusion that it is possible for Nintendo to launch sooner than we expect.
I bet you can package 2 or 3 per minute, if you consider that 1 person alone does not package the whole box, it's an assembly line afterall.
Post by: Strell on September 11, 2006, 12:52:33 PM
Yes.
Post by: Spak-Spang on September 11, 2006, 01:20:06 PM
Post by: Grant10k on September 11, 2006, 01:31:51 PM
Quote
Originally posted by: Spak-Spang
I wanna pack the Wii in my pants and run for the exit.
There is only 1 person operating the auto-pack machinery. The other 149 are snipers guarding the exits to make sure the packer dosn't do just that.
Post by: BigJim on September 11, 2006, 01:44:34 PM
The other variable is, how likely is it that all 150 are working all at once? If it's, say, 150 part-timers working 20 hours a week, that's effectively 75 full timers and volume is cut in half.
And how many Oompa Loompas does Iwata have?
Post by: JonLeung on September 11, 2006, 05:03:28 PM
We don't know: the actual launch date.
We suspect it to be in a particular launch window, of course, as early as October and as late as November...not very big, to be honest...and Rick's shown how mathematically it seems quite feasible for them to get over a million units ready for that date, whenever it is.
Which is nice, and all, but was there ever a concern?
I don't remember Nintendo ever having any major hardware shortages...oops, except for DS Lites - particularly in Japan... Still, I don't see how or why Nintendo would be like Sony or Microsoft and not have enough for demand. Perhaps that's too much faith in Nintendo but they have a good track record, unless my memory is bad.
Then again, like with the DS Lite, who knows what the demand is, what with all the Wii hype (and insane PS3 price and other dehyping) this year...perhaps there will be shortages.
Darn...this topic is making me again want to pre-order.
Post by: Ceric on September 11, 2006, 05:23:08 PM
Post by: Strell on September 11, 2006, 05:54:35 PM
Which translates to roughly 6 pairs of pants.
That's only about 7 PS3s though.
Post by: Athrun Zala on September 11, 2006, 06:15:55 PM
it's good to see that the Wii is right on track
Post by: BigJim on September 12, 2006, 12:14:57 AM
Quote
Originally posted by: BigJim
And how many Oompa Loompas does Iwata have?
Oompa Loompa doopity dasis
The secrets of Wii boxing is on a need-to-know basis.
Oompa Loompa doopity dun.
Prepare your diapers for teh megat0n.
Post by: The Omen on September 12, 2006, 11:46:22 AM
Hell, Manpower hires for postal workers around this time and it's 24 hours per day, and 6 days a week. I would say Nintendo is just as large as the Orlando PO.
Post by: RickPowers on September 12, 2006, 12:18:32 PM
Unless Nintendo will be paying for overtime (and I doubt it; Nintendo is nothing if not cost-conscious), the number of shifts is meaningless. It's still the number of people by the number of hours worked. It is more efficient for the plant to run 24/7, but less efficient to pay people overtime (shift differentials notwithstanding). The math still holds ... it is unlikely that any given employee of the 150 being hired will work more than a 40 hour week.
Post by: Smash_Brother on September 12, 2006, 04:28:40 PM
Wake up and smell the oil-based sweat of America's newest metallic employment threat, my friends.
Post by: Ceric on September 12, 2006, 04:54:30 PM
Post by: JonLeung on September 12, 2006, 05:01:39 PM
Post by: Ceric on September 12, 2006, 05:03:39 PM
Post by: RickPowers on September 13, 2006, 08:40:34 AM
Can't tell that I'm a Business Major, can you?
Post by: vudu on September 13, 2006, 09:34:09 AM
QuoteA finance one, at that (by the sound of things).
Originally posted by: RickPowers
Can't tell that I'm a Business Major, can you?
Post by: RickPowers on September 13, 2006, 09:49:06 AM
Post by: The Omen on September 13, 2006, 02:21:19 PM
Quote
Omen,
Unless Nintendo will be paying for overtime (and I doubt it; Nintendo is nothing if not cost-conscious), the number of shifts is meaningless. It's still the number of people by the number of hours worked. It is more efficient for the plant to run 24/7, but less efficient to pay people overtime (shift differentials notwithstanding). The math still holds ... it is unlikely that any given employee of the 150 being hired will work more than a 40 hour week.
A person wouldn't have to work overtime. The shifts at the post office were three 12 hour shifts per week for some people. That's 36 hours, therefore not OT. It's a rotating schedule.
Besides, you know how much Manpower charges companies per hour? A lot more than they pay the employees, I'll tell you that.
Post by: Shecky on February 07, 2007, 01:57:36 PM
Post by: IceCold on February 07, 2007, 05:22:43 PM
What exactly is the point even of that article?
Post by: BranDonk Kong on February 08, 2007, 04:12:39 AM
Post by: ryancoke on February 08, 2007, 05:07:07 AM
Post by: Ceric on February 08, 2007, 07:06:26 AM
