Gaming Forums => General Gaming => Topic started by: GoldenPhoenix on August 06, 2006, 06:53:52 PM
Title: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on August 06, 2006, 06:53:52 PM
Since I've been seeing many individuals, mainly those so called "professionals" throwing their hat in the ring analyzing the future "gaming wars" I thought I would give it a shot. To begin, since this is a Nintendo board let me start with Wii. As the time has flown by we are starting to get more of an outlook on a potential system seller, that being the Virtual Console. As most of you know the VC has been growing in its support, which should help it become a success (as long as pricing is reasonable). If it does achieve success I'm sure you will start seeing games “rare” games for it such as Breath of Fire or maybe some long lost Saturn games. With publishes like Sega, Hudson, and SNK signing on already, the VC may very well be a must have feature for gamers of all kinds.
In regards to the Wii itself, it appears it will have one of the strongest launch lineups in quite awhile. At the end of this I will post the unconfirmed launch lineup. There is no indication at all (except Sony fan boy hope) that they will be relying on “old” games to sell itself, if anything it has potential to add a fresh take on about any game put on it. If the record breaking lines at E3 are any indication I think Nintendo may very well be sitting on a goldmine, which should help propel it to big things in the future.
I do have some concerns regarding Wii and they remains with its lack of power, which could become an issue for the technology geek. This could be a mute point in the long run, because history has shown us that the most graphically powerful system has not always won the console wars. Wii's success is going to have to fall upon game play with graphics being just enough to suck the gamer in. This does appear to be the case with many of Nintendo’s first party titles, while not gorgeous, they are attractive visually. Still there are many horsepower nuts out there, so it will take some work on Nintendo's part to convince them to turn towards the Wii.
My other concern is focused on Nintendo's past marketing success, which has been, um, pitiful. They have been showing improvement with NDS but they still need to convey the image of what it is like to PLAY the game in their commercials, this could be a big challenge since they cannot rely solely on game play footage or CGI like some other unnamed company. Finally the name itself still needs to obtain a positive image. Yes I believe it has become less of an issue, and in fact a positive thing (The amount of publicity the name controversy got Nintendo turned out to be quite good), but it still needs work to suck in the "Mature" minded individuals who can't get over their crude, immature jokes. Then there is the non-gamer, Nintendo needs to go iPod on their butts and develop a picture of what the Wii is, in the non-gamers’ head, which once again falls back upon how well Nintendo markets the system.
In conclusion, I think the positives outweigh the negatives. With the cheap price, and unique way of playing games I do not see how Wii will fail. It should be able to at least get 2nd place in the system wars worldwide, especially with excitement already brewing both in the US and Japan.
Now onto Sony, I believe they may struggle in Japan (possible even get trounced) and the U.S. If you have been paying much attention to the PSP you would know, in Japan, it is getting crucified by the NDS Lite, this tells me that the Sony name does not automatically sell systems, and that gamers are not nearly as blind to “brand” as I originally thought. If the PS3 starts to struggle in Japan I would not be surprised to see some of its exclusives start to fade away. As of right now the main exclusives it has that are top sellers are Final Fantasy and MGS. Even those exclusives may be brought into question if the PS3 starts to struggle. I really would not be surprised to see Japanese developers move to 360 or Wii (more so Wii since the Japanese may not be as willing to support an American console). We could definitely be seeing another PS2 like generation where the “weakest” system got the most games. Nintendo also has one big attraction that Sony does not, and that is the low development costs. If I were Sony I would be sweating like crazy, they cannot last on MGS or FF alone (Or giant crabs for that matter).
Let us also factor in a Famitsu poll (Japans most popular gaming magazine) gave Wii a large lead in interest 68% compared to 21%. This gap has also been expanding as more polls come out, that is not a good sign! I realize that polling may not be the most accurate, but at the very least this Famitsu indicates a lot of interest in Wii. They are also one of the most highly regarded magazines in Japan, so I tend to trust their polling as being more "in tune" with the gaming public.
Even if you disregard the polling you are forced to take into account Sony's current financial and production problems with PS3, they had to take out a 700 million dollar loan (actually 698 million for the technical ones out there), and that combined with the fact that chip yields for the processor are 10-20% is not a good sign either. This all means they will probably sell out at launch, but like the 360 this will be due to not only the “newness” but also lack of systems.
People like to flaunt Sony’s domination the last two generations as proof of it not being able to fail, how soon we forget. Anyone remember Nintendo with a system called the N64? They WERE video games before N64 and Nintendo, in their arrogance, Nintendo decided that they could not lose so they not only released way after the PS1 but also stuck with carts. What happened? Well the N64 struggled and started a downhill slide for Nintendo, being the first generation which it actually lost.
Sony seems to be developing the same arrogant attitude due to the fact that unlike PS1 and PS2 which had little competition when they were launched (they were also competitively priced); Sony is now releasing their console last at a price that is strikingly high. Say what you want about teens with money, who can’t afford the system, but you need them to support a system too and as of now PS3 is not an attractive option.
Everything I have read is that the PS3 is not that much more powerful, if any, than the Xbox 360 (I believe even Kojima said the MGS4 footage could have been done on 360) but the comparison is tough since they use different architectures. Regardless, what is driving the price is the blu-ray player, not the gaming hardware and even at that they are losing close to 300$ on each system sold.
With all these potential issues cropping up this next generation is not going to be a walk in the park like the last two generations for Sony. They no longer have the luxury of being first or having a competitive price (I still hold out that the Sony brand is not as strong as people think and their success was because of timely and price conscience releases).
It is my prediction that Sony will take at least 2nd in Japan, but this due to Xbox not being that accepted. But as we know in gaming, anything could happen and Sony could be left in the dust and MS could possibly build upon their Japanese market share with support from Japanese developers. Worldwide is another story, I think it is going to be a tight race between Xbox 360 and PS3, with the Wii being a potential runaway success due to the price (then again it could be a tight race all around, it is tough to tell).
Now this all brings me to Xbox 360, the potential wildcard. So far I believe the 360 is in the hands of 7 or so million gamers (Please correct me if I’m wrong, this is just a guess), so it already has a solid user base. I have no idea how it is doing in Japan, except not so well. Excluding Japan, Microsoft has something to build a system that is far more successful than the Xbox; all they need to do is try to build on their 1 year lead. I see Xbox 360 taking first in America, unlike Sony, Microsoft does not have the idea that their brand will sell systems and like I showed, it appears gamers aren’t too thrilled with brand either. This leaves an opportunity for Microsoft to make a killing with exclusives, while Sony has MGS, FF and their first party games, MS has games like Forza, Project Gotham, Gears of War, and the juggernaut, Halo. These games should be enough to suck in American gamers, perhaps even more so than Sony’s potential exclusives because they have MORE.
Worldwide I’m going to have put Xbox 360 at 2nd or 3rd place since it will probably be destroyed by both Wii and PS3 in Japan. In America I think it will take a 2nd or 1st place crown because of its competitive price and large library of games. So basically, anywhere but Japan is up for grabs when it comes to Xbox 360. In places other than America I'm going to give PS3 the benefit of the doubt because of them having more exposure. I could be dead wrong since I am not really that in tune with gaming sales elsewhere in the world besides NA and Japan.
In conclusion I do think Wii will end up winning this generation, with my prediction based upon the success of the DS. If anything, the DS Lite has shown that gamers are not impressed with the best graphics or even “best” brand name, but instead still look at the games. With what seems like a lot of 3rd party support, affordable price and gaming experiences that you cannot get on the other consoles, it has so much going for it I think you would be insane not to see the potential to dominate. PS3 is my pick for 2nd for reasons already stated, though I think the market share will be much less than it was last generation. And finally 360 I'm unsure of except that I feel it will not win Japan, but potentially win America, elsewhere is up for grabs between PS3 and 360. For the heck of it, I will say Xbox 360 will obtain 3rd due to the leverage Japan has on gaming. Regardless, this should be a fascinating time for games.
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Kairon on August 06, 2006, 07:54:55 PM
I'd be careful, because we're as much fanboys as the Sony kids. It's easy to cross the line into the dark side and becoming that which we despise, so while you attempt the same Jedi mind tricks that Perrin Kaplan executes on Matt Cassamassina, beware of the dark side.
First off, there have been polls in Japan where the PS3 has beaten the Wii, so polls can't really be used definiteively, but only to show that the Wii has as much demand in Japan as one could call healthy.
Second, when talking about the overall market, keep in mind how small japan's market is due to their small population. In Japan, only 20 million PS2s were sold and about 6 million GCs. In the big scheme of thing, Microsoft could still take first place if they're first in the USA and Europe and last in Japan.
But your positions on the PS2's success as a price-leader instead of as a brand and on the PS2 as an early-to-market product are very good observations! I need to remember those points myself!
~Carmine M. Red Kairon@aol.com
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Requiem on August 06, 2006, 10:38:26 PM
Quote Originally posted by: Kairon Second, when talking about the overall market, keep in mind how small japan's market is due to their small population. In Japan, only 20 million PS2s were sold and about 6 million GCs. In the big scheme of thing, Microsoft could still take first place if they're first in the USA and Europe and last in Japan.
As much as this makes sense, you are under-estimating the power of Japan. It may be small, but if Japanese developers don't like what they see, they simply won't support this system. Market leader in Japan has always had the most games. More games = more marketshare.
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on August 06, 2006, 10:43:06 PM
delete
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Kairon on August 06, 2006, 11:05:35 PM
Quote Originally posted by: Requiem
Quote Originally posted by: Kairon Second, when talking about the overall market, keep in mind how small japan's market is due to their small population. In Japan, only 20 million PS2s were sold and about 6 million GCs. In the big scheme of thing, Microsoft could still take first place if they're first in the USA and Europe and last in Japan.
As much as this makes sense, you are under-estimating the power of Japan. It may be small, but if Japanese developers don't like what they see, they simply won't support this system. Market leader in Japan has always had the most games. More games = more marketshare.
I don't buy into this thinking. I think that Japanese companies are acting much more rationally than that. Let me stereotype them as efficient Japanese businessmen: doesn't the obvious plain, straightforward, business sense show that they should develop for the American market? Surely they do nostalgia and legacy support, but they're in it to make money, and they have duties to their shareholders just like American companies do.
Just look at successful games like MGS and Resident Evil. These franchises have been MUCH more accepted in the west than in Japan. In fact, the Japanese consumers tend to ignore MGS, which is why MGS 2 was released in the US first. Capcom is even making an action title, Cold Planet, for the X360 which will do abysmal in Japan for sure!
No, I think the key to Japanese companies is the key to any company: business sense and profits. Show them the money!
Whether it be by Blue Ocean, Long Tail, or simply a large user base, just show them a way they can make money and feel good doing it!
~Carmine M. Red Kairon@aol.com
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Requiem on August 06, 2006, 11:07:47 PM
Kairon, I have some good points I'd like you to hear, but I'm going to sleep...
I'll post them tomorrow.
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Kairon on August 06, 2006, 11:19:53 PM
I think it's also important in an analysis to acknowledge and address even those points which you as a fan have internalized and already know, VGrevolution.
For example, it strikes me as a significant omission that the Wii's name hasn't been mentioned, nor Nintendo's challenges in marketting it and getting it out to consumers. This may actually end up a positive note for Nintendo (the name has mostly become accepted, marketting may be successful and emphasize playing etc.), but marketting can't be ignored, especially when Microsoft and Sony will be marketting their respective consoles as well.
Anyways, I still enjoyed rereading your analysis, especially your views on how the PS3 is at multiple disadvantages being both expensive and later-arriving.
But personally, while I also (for perhaps fanboyish reasons) put the Wii at #1 worldwide at the end of this gen, I'd choose the X360 for second place. Reading your analysis convinces me that Sony's only advantage over MS is Final Fantasy and MGS. MS, conversely, has an installed unit lead, is already penetrating secondary markets worldwide, is hungrily eyeing europe as a potential market to dominate in, has cheaper development since it's always going to be somewhat related to PCs, has strong pseudo-second party relationships and good internal leadership, is almost as good as the PS3 graphically but at 200 dollars cheaper, will have GTA4 (wow), and already has a hardcore online gaming community built-in with XBLA and XBox Live Gold.
Against that array of MS assets, I don't think we know enough at all of Sony's plans or potential to think that they are in a confident position right now.
~Carmine M. Red Kairon@aol.com
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on August 06, 2006, 11:22:25 PM
delete
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Kairon on August 06, 2006, 11:30:09 PM
This is the problem with predicting the future: we don't know what'll happen! As much as we try to remain objective, we're still actually being subjective based on our own understandings and feelings of the industry.
~Carmine M. Red Kairon@aol.com
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Kairon on August 06, 2006, 11:31:23 PM
This is the problem with predicting the future: we don't know what'll happen! As much as we try to remain objective, we're still actually being subjective based on our own understandings and feelings of the industry.
~Carmine M. Red Kairon@aol.com
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on August 06, 2006, 11:32:12 PM
Kairon I appreciate the input, I am constantly updating this. I did my best to try and remain objective (which is nearly impossible), so if there are any holes I am open to fixing them.
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Kairon on August 06, 2006, 11:39:47 PM
Well, the biggest glaring whole is our own admitted Nintendo fanboyism, LOL. Hmm... I'll get back to you when I think of a way to "fix" that. &P
~Carmine M. Red Kairon@aol.com
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: BigJim on August 07, 2006, 03:55:35 AM
I don't have too much time to relay all my thoughts, but I'll summarize.
This generation was a benchmark for Sony. Regardless of who we see in 1st, 2nd or 3rd next time, this type of dominance will not be repeated. They had the right product in the right place at the right time. A time when gaming was on the rise and becoming a subset of pop culture, and the right games (and game volume) to back it up. Sony was also vital in growing the market as well since the PS1, much like Nintendo hopes to next gen.
Sony's competition had nothing for over a year. On top of that, Microsoft was selling Xbox heavily on 2 things: Halo and online. Problem: Xbox Live didn't come out until almost a year after Xbox did. So they were selling the audience on the idea of online. At the point of XBL's launch, they already lost their chances of seeing their fullest potential. Nintendo marketed heavily on 2 things also: Nintendo fans and value players. Nintendo fans are a given, but they've shown themselves to be a decreasing market. And the value proposition is an important one in any market, but there too is also a point of diminishing returns when the already pre-defined "winner" of the generation can lower their price.
In other words, there basically wasn't anything anyone could do to stop Sony. It was going to the moon, period. It was the video game market's iPod.
Next gen is MUCH more unpredictable and interesting. As I said, the benchmark is not being repeated. Sony's no longer a defacto right product/place/time. But I do think that most gamers will find a way to pay for the product they want. The question is, what do they WANT? It won't be 360 or Wii automatically by virtue of PS3's price. And it won't be PS3 automatically by virtue of PS2's success.
All 3 companies have a distinctly different idea about what gamers want. And those differences, IMO, will play out to be their strengths. It's gaming the way you want it. A good deal of each brand's previous successes and failures wipe each other out. For every "momentum of PS2's popularity" sale you have "Nintendo's retro library" and "Xbox Live" sales. Sony's percentage pie will get eaten, and this generation will be closer among the 3.
All 3 will have healthy marketshare, IMO. Who comes out 1st/2nd/3rd may not matter when they're all successfully hitting their niche. For someone to win, the competition doesn't necessarily have to lose. Pick the way(s) you want to game, and you'll be happy.
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: nitsu niflheim on August 07, 2006, 04:56:43 AM
polls are only as effective as the questions asked.
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Rhoq on August 07, 2006, 08:38:55 AM
The next generation will be all about what gamers can afford. For most people it's going to be the "Wii60", which can be had for roughly the same price combined as one PlayStation 3 (give or take $50, which will all depend on what pricepoint Nintendo decides to go with the Wii).
I think the next-gen will be a close race for first place between the XBox 360 and the Wii. Unless Sony drops the price of the PS3 by at least $100 in time for the Holiday 2007 buying season, I think they'll definitely be in last place, even if they do, it might be too late for them. I recently joined the "Team XBox" forums and most of the folks there (mostly XBox/XBox 360s owners & fanboys) seem to be looking forward to the Wii.
I think Sony's decision to go with the $500 & $600 pricepoints has left a sour taste in alot of gamers' mouths. All of the PS2 fanboys might jump over to the Microsoft camp. At this point the 360 is a much better value. When all is said and done, take away the Blu Ray and the PS3's games won't look that much better than the XBox 360. The visual difference will be negligible, if at all.
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Ages on August 07, 2006, 05:17:48 PM
Quote Originally posted by: Requiem
Quote Originally posted by: Kairon Second, when talking about the overall market, keep in mind how small japan's market is due to their small population. In Japan, only 20 million PS2s were sold and about 6 million GCs. In the big scheme of thing, Microsoft could still take first place if they're first in the USA and Europe and last in Japan.
As much as this makes sense, you are under-estimating the power of Japan. It may be small, but if Japanese developers don't like what they see, they simply won't support this system. Market leader in Japan has always had the most games. More games = more marketshare.
Dont underestimate the Japanese market. They're much stronger than the size indicates.
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: SixthAngel on August 07, 2006, 06:32:09 PM
Quote I don't buy into this thinking. I think that Japanese companies are acting much more rationally than that. Let me stereotype them as efficient Japanese businessmen: doesn't the obvious plain, straightforward, business sense show that they should develop for the American market? Surely they do nostalgia and legacy support, but they're in it to make money, and they have duties to their shareholders just like American companies do.
Just look at successful games like MGS and Resident Evil. These franchises have been MUCH more accepted in the west than in Japan. In fact, the Japanese consumers tend to ignore MGS, which is why MGS 2 was released in the US first. Capcom is even making an action title, Cold Planet, for the X360 which will do abysmal in Japan for sure!
You point out a few games that companies make that only do well in the US. Many games like Final Fantasy do well in both territories. These games are targeted at the japanese market first and then later translated. Big system sellers like Final Fantasy (all jRPGS actually) will most likely go to the company with the most marketshare in Japan and this will help them in all other territories as well.
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on August 07, 2006, 11:39:01 PM
Quote Originally posted by: SixthAngel
Quote I don't buy into this thinking. I think that Japanese companies are acting much more rationally than that. Let me stereotype them as efficient Japanese businessmen: doesn't the obvious plain, straightforward, business sense show that they should develop for the American market? Surely they do nostalgia and legacy support, but they're in it to make money, and they have duties to their shareholders just like American companies do.
Just look at successful games like MGS and Resident Evil. These franchises have been MUCH more accepted in the west than in Japan. In fact, the Japanese consumers tend to ignore MGS, which is why MGS 2 was released in the US first. Capcom is even making an action title, Cold Planet, for the X360 which will do abysmal in Japan for sure!
You point out a few games that companies make that only do well in the US. Many games like Final Fantasy do well in both territories. These games are targeted at the japanese market first and then later translated. Big system sellers like Final Fantasy (all jRPGS actually) will most likely go to the company with the most marketshare in Japan and this will help them in all other territories as well.
I think Sony will be hurting if they just lose one exclusive, whether it be MGS or FF. As of now things are looking looking bad but they could get alot worse if that was to happen. It would be quite homorus if Wii ended up getting the FF series as an exclusive, I bet Sony fans would have a stroke if that was to happen!
P.S. I posted this on gamefaqs and the posts I got were "too long to read", "this is all obvious", "don't care" or a summary that wasn't even correct "Wii over PS3 over Xbox 360" without elaborating much on my indecisiveness when placing the systems. So I take everything back about gamefaqs, they are the most sophisticated gaming fans around, you guys can't hold a candle to them with your complete thoughts and interesting observations . In all seriousness I do appreciate all the feedback and discussion this has brought, I know it is long, but I did spend some time on it .
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on August 08, 2006, 01:16:28 AM
Quote Originally posted by: Rhoq The next generation will be all about what gamers can afford. For most people it's going to be the "Wii60", which can be had for roughly the same price combined as one PlayStation 3 (give or take $50, which will all depend on what pricepoint Nintendo decides to go with the Wii).
I think the next-gen will be a close race for first place between the XBox 360 and the Wii. Unless Sony drops the price of the PS3 by at least $100 in time for the Holiday 2007 buying season, I think they'll definitely be in last place, even if they do, it might be too late for them. I recently joined the "Team XBox" forums and most of the folks there (mostly XBox/XBox 360s owners & fanboys) seem to be looking forward to the Wii.
I think Sony's decision to go with the $500 & $600 pricepoints has left a sour taste in alot of gamers' mouths. All of the PS2 fanboys might jump over to the Microsoft camp. At this point the 360 is a much better value. When all is said and done, take away the Blu Ray and the PS3's games won't look that much better than the XBox 360. The visual difference will be negligible, if at all.
Ah I am a member of Team Xbox as well, it is a fun place to stop in, though I do prefer planetgamecube. I think you are right in regards to the price, regardless of what spin Sony's PR likes to put out there, there are alot of teens who will not be able to afford the system. Those who rely on Christmas presents to get their systems will probaly be without a PS3, that is a big chunk of gamers! To respond to a point BigJim made (brilliant post BTW even if I may not agree totally), I think Wii has potential to be more than niche system. NDS is showing that you can get both non, mainstream and hardcore gamers into video games. If Nintendo is able to repeat this with Wii, I can see it running WAY ahead of both PS3 and Xbox 360 whos niche is mainly mainstream and "hardcore" gamers.
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: couchmonkey on August 08, 2006, 06:55:56 AM
Interesting analysis, VGrevolution. I think you're pretty close on a lot of your thoughts.
What I think is definitely going to happen:
- Sony will lose marketshare. - Nintendo and Microsoft will gain marketshare.
How much? I have no idea.
What I think might happen:
Wii - has the best chance of a break-away success on par with PS2. Nintendo still has some issues with marketing, but I think those issues are much less important since Nintendo has set Wii apart from the competition right from the start. Early indication is that the system has a ton of gamer interest, and if Nintendo can make good on it's non-gamer marketing plans, it could potentially create a whole new market that Sony and Microsoft are not equipped to sell to. I think Nintendo will gain marketshare even if it fails to reach the non-gamers. I predict first place for Nintendo.
PS3 - Sony has messed up too much, momentum and Blu-ray are the only things it has going for it, and Blu-ray is starting to look like another failed Sony format. Still, it's the one feature that makes PS3 stand apart, in my opinion, so I won't totally count it out. As for the momentum, Sony has killed most of that itself with a late launch, high pricing, and countless smaller mistakes. I still expect Sony to lose some marketshare this generation, even in the best case scenario. I predict a close third place for Sony.
Xbox 360 - Microsoft could take number one, I see its selling point as being more powerful than Wii but less expensive than PS3. Having said that, I don't think it will match the break-away success of PS2 without gaining a lot more popularity in Japan. Historically speaking, it just can't be done - but there's a first time for everything, right? Also, where are the games? GTA 4 and Halo 3 are bound to make a big splash, but the lineup so far seems ho-hum. Granted, we're at the tail end of the traditional first-year game drought. I don't think Xbox 360 has as much potential as Wii, but it has more potential than PS3 to take a distant lead. I predict Microsoft will just edge out Sony for second place, and will sell quite a bit more than the original Xbox.
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on August 08, 2006, 07:36:38 AM
Quote Originally posted by: couchmonkey Interesting analysis, VGrevolution. I think you're pretty close on a lot of your thoughts.
What I think is definitely going to happen:
- Sony will lose marketshare. - Nintendo and Microsoft will gain marketshare.
How much? I have no idea. What I think might happen:
Wii - has the best chance of a break-away success on par with PS2. Nintendo still has some issues with marketing, but I think those issues are much less important since Nintendo has set Wii apart from the competition right from the start. Early indication is that the system has a ton of gamer interest, and if Nintendo can make good on it's non-gamer marketing plans, it could potentially create a whole new market that Sony and Microsoft are not equipped to sell to. I think Nintendo will gain marketshare even if it fails to reach the non-gamers. I predict first place for Nintendo.
PS3 - Sony has messed up too much, momentum and Blu-ray are the only things it has going for it, and Blu-ray is starting to look like another failed Sony format. Still, it's the one feature that makes PS3 stand apart, in my opinion, so I won't totally count it out. As for the momentum, Sony has killed most of that itself with a late launch, high pricing, and countless smaller mistakes. I still expect Sony to lose some marketshare this generation, even in the best case scenario. I predict a close third place for Sony.
Xbox 360 - Microsoft could take number one, I see its selling point as being more powerful than Wii but less expensive than PS3. Having said that, I don't think it will match the break-away success of PS2 without gaining a lot more popularity in Japan. Historically speaking, it just can't be done - but there's a first time for everything, right? Also, where are the games? GTA 4 and Halo 3 are bound to make a big splash, but the lineup so far seems ho-hum. Granted, we're at the tail end of the traditional first-year game drought. I don't think Xbox 360 has as much potential as Wii, but it has more potential than PS3 to take a distant lead. I predict Microsoft will just edge out Sony for second place, and will sell quite a bit more than the original Xbox.
Sounds good to me, one thing I did not mention about blu-ray is that about every new medium Sony has pushed has failed, that is not a good track record, then again there is a first time for everything. Another thing, that perhaps some of you could help me with, but aren't the blu-ray disks pretty expensive, at least compared to normal DVD? If so that could end up hurting the bluray big time, since I'm not sure people are going to be willing to spend so much on DVDs even if the quality is better.
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: couchmonkey on August 08, 2006, 10:07:51 AM
My impression is that everything about Blu-ray is more expensive than HD-DVD. I only know what people have been saying on these forums, but I think Blu-ray discs are set to be noticeably more expensive, and the hardware itself is something like twice as much? That's discounting PS3, which Sony is obviously trying to use as the Blu-ray Trojan Horse, but it doesn't bode well for the format at all.
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Kairon on August 08, 2006, 10:47:33 AM
My completely-uninformed opinion is that Blue Ray movies will sell for $30, which is fine until you notice that blue-ray players cost $500 and up.
BUT, I think that the playstation name will give Blu-ray a little momentum and it will have a good chance of at least catching on to... say... ummm... the current successful adoption rate of HD-TVs?
Seriously, without any clear benefits over regular DVDs to the common consumer, why would anyone aside from videophiles be eager to support this? And especially when there will be no clear winner in the format war between blu-ray and HD-DVD?
~Carmine M. Red Kairon@aol.com
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: GoldenPhoenix on August 08, 2006, 02:04:51 PM
Quote Originally posted by: Kairon My completely-uninformed opinion is that Blue Ray movies will sell for $30, which is fine until you notice that blue-ray players cost $500 and up.
BUT, I think that the playstation name will give Blu-ray a little momentum and it will have a good chance of at least catching on to... say... ummm... the current successful adoption rate of HD-TVs?
Seriously, without any clear benefits over regular DVDs to the common consumer, why would anyone aside from videophiles be eager to support this? And especially when there will be no clear winner in the format war between blu-ray and HD-DVD?
~Carmine M. Red Kairon@aol.com
I think the only "blu-ray player" that will be 500$ is the bare bones PS3, and I don't remember if it even plays blu-ray movies out of the box. So really I think the cheapest would be 600$ if you count the PS3, and for other blu-ray players the cost is around 1000$ (yes double the price of the HD-DVD).
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: NinGurl69 *huggles on August 08, 2006, 04:30:42 PM
What good is a $500 BRD Player that doesn't have the HDMI connection to enable its full resolution?
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Smash_Brother on August 08, 2006, 06:03:49 PM
Quote Originally posted by: Professional 666 What good is a $500 BRD Player that doesn't have the HDMI connection to enable its full resolution?
Eccentric's doorstop.
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Requiem on August 08, 2006, 06:10:15 PM
More like nut-cracker!
Am I right? Come on, am-I-right?!
....I hate you guys...
Title: RE:My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: BigJim on August 09, 2006, 04:48:21 AM
Quote Originally posted by: Professional 666 What good is a $500 BRD Player that doesn't have the HDMI connection to enable its full resolution?
Studios have supposedly agreed not to lower component resolution, so thats basically a resolved issue (for now).
Title: RE: My little (ok big) take on the upcoming system wars
Post by: Ceric on August 09, 2006, 05:48:31 AM
On the price of the Discs. If you walk into a store where I live that has both of them they each go for the same price ($25-30). Which in all actuallity really isn't that bad. Especially when you consider this. That is about as close as your going to get to HD-DVD/Blu-Ray version of Spiderman at this time. Superbit forgoes special features to use the extra space for better sound and picture. It sort of an elitist version of the DVD but would just be the entry level for HD-DVD/Blu-Ray in theory, right now it's not the case. It lists for $26.96. You can get it cheaper and the same with the Blu-ray and HD-DVD's. Amazon has some of those for $19.99. As I said earlier though, I htink it was this thread or maybe another, the transfers are being rushed right now for some reason, the players aren't up to snuff yet, and overall entry price is a little high at the moment. That's whats really killing the two. Just for fun This is whats considered the best looking Blu-Ray Disc to date and This is the average price that Amazon is selling the movies at. To not be one-sided on this, Here is the average costing HD-DVD. I apologize for not being able to find a Premo version priced HD-DVD. Whats interesting to Note is the HD-DVD's list price is $29.98 while Blu-Ray's is $28.95. It's not a big difference but one of the advantages of HD-DVD that it would be cheaper to produce the discs early on in the lifecycle. Just think about that for a second. That means your probably getting gauged a pretty penny more for this initial batch of HD-DVD then Blu-ray. Well I guess that money is funding the cheaper players.