Topic: Khushrenada's Annual Oscar Thread. 2022 Edition.

[Khushrenada]

Last year, it was pretty bleak time for me when it came to this Oscar routine. Covid had killed theaters and I had seen none of the movies even nominated for Best Picture that year. This year had some promise that things might get better as we got close to June and vaccination rates had gone up. Some bigger movies were finally showing up in theaters after sitting out 2020. Unfortunately, that respite was short-lived as Covid protocols returned and going to the theater was a question of do I really want to risk my health for this movie?

While my movie watching was back up again from the past few years (I guess I could have posted another thread listing all the movies I watched in 2021), again it was a case of very few movies that actually premiered in 2021 and mainly older films of the past. Unlike last year, I've actually seen one of the movies nominated for Best Picture so that's an improvement.  (For the record, that movie is Dune).

Here's some quick useless trivia for you: With the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture this year, that makes a total of 584 movies that have been nominated for Best Picture over the Academy's history. Of those 584 movies, I have seen 462 of them leaving 122 to still watch. The decade with the most films I still have yet to watch is the 1930s with 30 movies still left there. In second place, it is a tie with the 1940s and the 2020s with both decades currently at 16 movies each I have yet to see. So, that's how well things have been going for Best Picture nominees the past couple years and me.

Last year showed one can still compete in predicting the nominees without having seen the pictures so let's try it again this year.

[Khushrenada]

Let's start with the awards most people seem to be saying are a lock. (Although upsets can still happen in a category deemed a lock. Last year was a surprise outlier in that all 7 choices I said were a lock did indeed play out that way. Here's hoping the trend continues this year.)

Best Director: Jane Campion

(There is some talk of potentially giving Spielberg his third Oscar but I think it likely they nominate a long time female Director who has yet to win and was nominated before.)

Best Actor: Will Smith

Smith lost when he was nominated for Ali against Denzel who won for Training Day. Denzel is nominated again this year but I don't think that he's going to stop Smith again especially with Smith playing another biographical role and one that has earned praise from the Williams' sisters. There are rumblings of Andrew Garfield and Benedict Cumberbatch possibly being a dark horse but Smith has all the momentum.

Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur

Again, Kotsur has been winning in other Award shows for this role. Kodi Smit-McPhee has some people questing whether he might upset in this category but I'll stick with the person people have continually awarding so far.

Animated Feature: Encanto

Flee and The Mitchells vs The Machines have been given as possible contenders in this category but based on the way this category has been playing out over the past decade, it's usually given to the Animated film with the bigger box office and general appeal.

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul

Musical Documentaries seem to win a lot in this category so I'll stick with that trend.

Original Score: Dune

The consensus seems to be that Dune will be the winner here with its strange sounds so I'll go with that.

Costume Design: Cruella

Say what you will about the film, it was a movie about outlandish fashion and it delivered there so it will likely win here.

[Khushrenada]

More Competitive Categories

Best International Film: Drive My Car

Usually, a movie in this category is a lock to win if it also gets nominated for Best Picture but there has been occasion where that didn't happen. What makes it tricky is that another movie in this category (The Worst Person in the World) also managed to branch out of here and get a nomination in a Screenplay category. It's been getting more word of mouth so the potential is there for an upset but I'm going to stick with Drive My Car which obviously had enough appeal to get nominated for Best Picture and a Screenplay Award.

Original Song: Dos Oroguitas

This is another two horse race between this song from Encanto and No Time to Die from... No Time To Die. On the one hand, this isn't the Bruno song which some feel would have made this a walk if it had been nominated but it still plays at a heartfelt moment in the movie and Encanto's songs clearly have had an impact in pop culture the past couple months. On the other hand, the last two Bond Movies also won the Oscar for their theme song and this song actually won a Grammy last year when the movie was supposed to have first premiered. I hate to bet against Bond but I'll stick with Encanto which also got nominated for Score.

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain

Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Visual Effects: Dune

Production Design: Dune

Visual Effects: Dune

Best Sound: Dune

[Khushrenada]

This Year's Dreaded Six is actually a Dreaded Seven:

Best Animated Short: Robin Robin

Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye

Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball

Best Film Editing: Dune

Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA

Best Original Screenplay: Belfast

Best Picture: CODA

[pokepal148]

Well I'd say this year's Oscars certainly... Slapped.

[Khushrenada]

The Oscars may have finally topped the La La Land / Moonlight mix-up moment!

[Adrock]

I don’t watch award shows though I get why they matter to the performers (i.e. they’re offered better roles due to the exposure). I saw Will Smith sucker-punching (slapping?) Chris Rock making the rounds so I crawled out of the shadows to comment on it since I don’t have social media to do so.

Yeah… that’s assault and battery. It's important to note that assault is the threat of action while battery is the physical contact. That’s at least a misdemeanor, possibly a felony depending on the prosecutor. Smith should 100% get arrested and charged for that. We shouldn’t live in a society where someone can get away with that just because they’re rich and famous. There were hundreds of witnesses and it was filmed. That’s open and shut. The Academy just let that happen too then continued with the show as if that was normal. Will Smith made a speech in tears about love. What in the worl………

Chris Rock took it like a champ though. He should also lean into it and keep making jokes. He’s a comedian. Did he cross the line? I’m not here to comment on that. You can joke about anything with the understanding that not everyone is going to like what you have to say and no one has to host you saying it. At the same time, if your response to what someone says is physical violence, maybe you should go to jail then therapy.

[Khushrenada]

Prediction Results:

Best Picture: CODA
Best Director: Jane Campion
Best Actor: Will Smith
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose
Best Original Screenplay: Belfast
Best Adapted Screenplay: Coda
Best International Feature: Drive My Car
Best Animated Feature: Encanto
Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
Best Original Score: Dune
Best Original Song: Dos Oruguitas - Encanto It went to No Time to Die
Best Cinematography: Dune
Best Costume Design: Cruella
Best Editing: Dune
Best Makeup: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Production Design: Dune
Best Sound: Dune
Best Visual Effects: Dune
Best Animated Short: Robin Robin It was The Windshield Wiper
Best Live-Action Short: The Long Goodbye
Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball


That makes a total of 21/23 correct.

[Khushrenada]

How does 2022 compare to past years?


2014: 20/24 (Great)
2015: 14/24 (My worst show in years)
2016: 16/24 (Average)
2017: 16/24 (Average)
2018: 16/24 (Average)
2019: 15/25 (Below Average)
2020: 19/24 (Better)
2021: 17/23 (Average)
2022: 21/23 (New Record!)


I was conflicted about that Song category and if I should go with Bond's winning streak. During the show and seeing the love the Bond franchise was getting further made me think I may have made the wrong choice. Not much I can do about the Animated Short category. That category always seems to want to ruin my day.

[Khushrenada]

The Academy just let that happen too then continued with the show as if that was normal. Will Smith made a speech in tears about love.

That's Hollywood, baby!!

[nickmitch]

I think people made too big of a deal out of the whole thing, personally. It was a slap. Let's just move on. Chris Rock's face will heal up just fine.

[Khushrenada]

How'd I do against some of the experts?

Awards Watch gets a 18/23.

IndieWire got an 19/23.

Gold Derby for some reason listed the Best Documentary Short Category twice and predicted two different films as the winner with one of the choices being correct. Not sure what's up with that but I'll be generous and given them a half point for it anyways giving them 19.5/23.

Roger Ebert. This year, the site didn't even go through all the categories just predicting 8 of them. Of those 8, the writer got 5/8 while I was 8/8 in the categories they attempted to predict.

Variety gets an 18/23.

Last year was a mixed bag in beating the "experts" but not so this year. I beat them all. Of course, there is one other person I'm always hoping to beat which is my brother. I've been competing against him longer than many of these other sites and this year he got.... 21/23. Argh. A tie. A bit disappointing for us both as one would think they'd have automatically won with a score like that. We were pretty much similar in our picks. There were only two categories we differed in: Best Song and Best Picture. He got Song right and I got Picture right and that left us with a tie.

I'd say that wraps up my time with this thread. Aside from possibly revisiting it one day to give a quick listing of how I'd rank the nominees for Best Picture if I get around to seeing them at some point but that won't be anytime soon.