It depends the only really commercially viable on the game that would sway people is smash brothers. You have to wonder if that and the bundles are enough. Smash Brothers is awesome but for $50 more you can get a much more support system that comes with two or three games.
There's nothing on the Xbone that's anything like Smash Bros. People buying the Wii U for Smash Bros this holiday are doing it because they love playing Smash Bros and want the newest installment. Plus for many, Smash Bros will end up giving them way more hours of gameplay in the end anyway making just that one game a better value then 2-3 Xbone games anyway.
What both of these arguments are lacking is Nintendo Stubbornness. In general Nintendo doesn't really do Price drops and has a good amount of exclusives. You can be pretty confident, 3DS as the exception, that if you buy Nintendo Console Hardware you won't be seeing a price drop are a real better iteration later.
MS not so much. By now its a good chance you have on in the PS360 combo and that will get you still the majority of new releases. That will not be changing anytime soon. There is still a very good arguments the smart move is to wait till it reaches a critical mass of games for you.
Since when? They aggressively dropped the price on SNES, N64, and Game Cube all to match their competition, Wii has blinded people into thinking that fluke is how it always was. Nintendo can not sell Wii U's at $300 when Xbox one, a new, more powerful next gen system with a rising library of games is fifty dollars more. You know they are having this discussion in board meetings right now, Smash Bros. is a big seller to Nintendo fans, but that game alone is not going to be the savior of the Wii U its going to be just like Game Cube, a big holiday sales rush and then sales falling off a cliff. By this point in Game Cubes life the price was already down to $99 and they were aggressive with their bundles, because MS was doing these types of aggressive bundles and price drops. Nintendo fans, or a certain segment of them, might not think Microsoft and Nintendo are competing for the same audience but their investors, and the game developers all know better.
Nintendo might hide a price drop in aggressive bundles, at first but there is no way an official one doesn't fallow suit right away.
I am willing to bet money on it, I will GIFT an eshop game of your choice if I am wrong, anyone takes me up on it does the same for me. They WILL drop the price before December first, most likely in a big bundle that is priced the same as the regular set but comes with enough crap to get the core unit down to the hidden new price, then right after the official price drop.
As much as I want Smash Bros. to be the system seller that turns Wii U into the viable machine everyone wants it to be, it won't it will be another Mario Kart, it will have big sales for a few weeks then no new major games for months and it drops off. The games that are coming have Nintendo fan appeal and those guys are all one the fence waiting for that one more game, most who held off this long its Smash, the rest its Zelda, everyone else needs more than five games to play to justify a $300 machine, and right now theres not that many that have mass appeal.
Hate them all you want, Madden, Call of Duty, Fifa, NBA Live, these games have mass appeal, and there are dozens of them out now or coming soon to the other two, there is nothing coming to Wii U outside of Smash and some really quirky Nintendo games that have limited appeal to mostly kids, and die hard Nintendo fans, and people with families. Xbox sucks at that last market Sony does not. Now what could force Nintendo's hand is if Sony went for the kill and also dropped the price of the PS4, which lets be realistic is not past them doing if they want to get aggressive which they just might especially if they think they can take Japan away from Nintendo.