Topic: Switchmas Eve Rumors and Speculations Thread

[nickmitch]

Another dream deferred.

[Adrock]

The part I'm skeptical of most is Nvidia's involvement. The first time Nvidia was even rumored was a couple months ago while AMD has been heavily linked to NX since late 2014. That doesn't mean I'm dismissing Nvidia outright. However, I remain skeptical. I'm siding with AMD until given more than just Eurogamer to base this on. I generally trust Eurogamer; it's just that every outlet seems to be using Eurogamer as the source for this.

I still expect a full-blown dedicated console even if the handheld launches first and is Nintendo's main focus. One may ask why even bother releasing the dedicated console if the handheld can connect to a TV, and the answer is simple: native 1080p. There's a market for that. This strategy allows Nintendo to pitch products to high and low end users.

And sure, the handheld can be ARM while the console can be x86, but not if they're meant to play the same games.

[Fatty The Hutt]

This think-piece at NintendoLife states it too have separately confirmed the Nvidia rumor.

Many assumed that the NX would follow suit and harness AMD silicon, but yesterday's reports - which through our own snooping we've since discovered to be pretty watertight - now point to an Nvidia Tegra chipset being at the heart of Nintendo's new hardware

[Mop it up]

I like the idea tossed around that the handheld can plug into a "console dock" to play on a TV with added power. I think I could get on board with that.

[Kairon]

I don't get why everyone is treating this like it's only coming from Emily Rogers. A lot of sites are corraborating this with what they claim as multiple of their own sources, which they SHOULD be doing (multiple sources). There's the possibility someones playing an elaborate shell game and making one source look like many independent ones, but if so that'd reflect poorly on all these larger sites jumping into the fray.

[King of Twitch]

Do they deserve that trust? I've walked a lonely road down a Boulevard of Broken Megaton Dreams long enough to be skeptical. 32gb cartridges do sound delicious, however.

[Soren]

I'm trying to be skeptical. I refuse to believe Nintendo looked at the Vita and was like "yeah, let's do that."

[King of Twitch]

I want stacks and stacks of gray rectangular cassettes on my coffee table again! I want to pull one out of my jacket, slap it down, and say are you ready to play instead of fumbling around with a dumb cd.

[MagicCow64]

Well, if you distrust videogame outlets (reasonably), The Wall Street Journal chimed in and basically backed everything up. So I think we're pretty much looking at the first flush of the NX, with the exact power level TBD as well as the possibility of a non-portable unit (that wouldn't play different software and thus would be in the same ballpark).

[Adrock]

At this point, I'm generally not willing to trust any outlet until Nintendo officially announces something, not even merely comments. Even then, that gets hazy (e.g. Zelda Wii U in 2015). I'm too lazy to dig up old posts, but there was tons of evidence to support Nintendo not going this route (which still may come to pass). Iwata said NX wasn't a hybrid, but Nintendo as a whole is notorious for playing with semantics to just not understanding it at all. For example, Yoshio Sakamoto once said Metroid: Other M is "more than just a collaborative effort — it's one group working toward a common goal." So, you know, a collaborative effort..............

[Kairon]

Lol

[Enner]

AMD doesn't have a good portable chip in their line up (as far as I know). Nintendo still needs a portable console, if only to stubbornly think that Japan hasn't been completely taken over by mobage.

If you want the best portable chip, it has to be ARM. And who would you go to for a deal on an ARM chip? Samsung has its hands full. Qualcomm has their Snapdragon in a bunch of things. And then you have Nvidia with their Tegra line in the back of the ARM pack, hungry to make a big move and a big chip buy.

In my head of mad thoughts:
AMD is desperate to make long-lasting deals to stay afloat. Nvdia is hungry to be a bigger beast in the ARM race. It is not so far-fetched that Nintendo can hash out a deal with both of these companies at once.

My response to the difficulty of the different chip architectures is an impulsive thought that even I think is a bit too stupid crazy:
Maybe Nintendo is getting AMD to do an ARM-derivative of the AMD SoC? Now I can get a dozen computer engineers to say that's the most improbable thing to think of. Of how you can't lop off a x86 CPU core with an ARM one willy nilly.

This spitball has shot past the moon and in to the sun!

[BranDonk Kong]

There's simply no way that's happening. NX has been outed, it's a handheld with a dock for TV play. It will be Tegra-only, supporting two different CPU architectures means making games twice means two different systems means it's not the NX. AMD has Microsoft and Sony, they'll be fine.

[Adrock]

AMD has been working on ARM to enter that race, but it's no where near where Nvidia is currently. This current rumor lines up with the SemiAccurate rumor in May. The important bits were:

1. Nvidia downplayed profit margins from consoles, but it was butthurt by losing console contracts from Sony and Microsoft to AMD.
2. Considering Nvidia was looking to sell rather than Nintendo looking to buy, it's believed Nintendo made off very well in that deal. SemiAccurate was told that Nvidia promised software, support, and the kitchen sink at a very low cost just to get Nintendo's business.
3. Neither generation nor process node were discussed.
4. Home console was not discussed.

That looks like a great deal for Nintendo because that's exactly what Nintendo goes for. Was this rumor tailored to fit Nintendo? Is the current rumor parroting parts of the SeniAcurrate rumor in an attempt to seem more legitimate?

[Soren]

I think the strength of these rumors means we're looking at an Nvidia only machine. No way AMD is involved anymore. At this point you're basically hoping Nintendo chooses a different chip, but then that's still total speculation like how Digital Foundry talked about the X2.

[MysticGohan]

Here's the thing, AMD has SoC's, Nvidia has none when it comes to consoles, otherwise they'd have SoCs.

It's likely that it could be a handheld, but not the home console, also Nintendo has stated that the NX is multiple devices, not singular. So this could be taken as a Home Console and a Handheld.

I doubt Nintendo would do what razor did several years back, and it failed as was made by Nvidia.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/YZ4AlnlYenc
Don't believe anything until an official statement from Nintendo is released. EG has been wrong before, their record isn't spotless. Right now all of this are rumors.

We should hear something by September if not sooner.

[MysticGohan]

I think the strength of these rumors means we're looking at an Nvidia only machine. No way AMD is involved anymore. At this point you're basically hoping Nintendo chooses a different chip, but then that's still total speculation like how Digital Foundry talked about the X2.

I think AMD is very involved with the Home console as they have SOC wins that haven't been announced yet, now why wouldn't they? Probably likely waiting on Nintendo for approval. Also it's unlikely that the console would be running on anything from Nvidia, as nvidia has no semiconductor contracts.

Maybe the handheld, but I doubt it'll be with nvidia as I've stated before. I believe it was the President of NCL that stated last year that the NX will not be some hybrid console/handheld.

We know there will be a handheld and a home console.

[BlackNMild2k1]

This all sounds like my (our) speculated hybrid from last year or the year before... I can't remember.

Even the screen with detachable wiimotes idea was floated around. I believe we even had mock ups.

Maybe I should dig that old thread up and see what we were taking about and who was saying what.

[Stogi]

I'm warming up to the idea of having a handheld that docks and boosts its overall power. I like the idea of having one system that does both things. It'd be especially interesting if the dock streamed its signal wirelessly. There's a lot of potential there.

But the more I like the idea, the more I think it's fake. If it is going to match the current generation, it sounds too difficult to pull off. They're too many problems from a hardware point of view, not to mention what developers would have to do to make essentially two versions of the same game for one system. It sounds completely cumbersome.

Two systems that can swap games sounds more doable, more cost effective, and solves more problems. It'll still be a pain in the ass for developers, having to develop a game that works on both hardware systems. Still, this allows Nintendo to widen its support for both systems at once, and keep costs down while matching the market.

[Agent-X-]

At this point I'm thinking beefy Nvidia GPU in the home console dock that utilizes the Tegra chip for PhysX and additional GPU operations for enhanced visuals or perhaps... 4k output.


If I'm gonna dream, I'm gonna dream BIG. And Nvidia ownz the GPU market.

[Ian Sane]

Two systems that can swap games sounds more doable, more cost effective, and solves more problems. It'll still be a pain in the ass for developers, having to develop a game that works on both hardware systems. Still, this allows Nintendo to widen its support for both systems at once, and keep costs down while matching the market.

Isn't this pretty much the same routine that the PS4 and Vita have?  The Vita gets a lot of PS4 ports and that probably played a part in it's weak sales in the West since it doesn't seem like that essential of a purchase.  The 3DS is worth owning even if you don't care at all about portability because it has great games you can't get anywhere else.  If Nintendo makes the lineup of their two systems identical then their handheld loses all appeal aside from portability so the sales will be worse than the 3DS since it will lose those that just bought it for the games.  It goes from an essential videogame system to just a way to play games on the go and that's a big reason why non-Nintendo handhelds have struggled.  To focus development on one lineup of games, some sort of hybrid makes more sense.

What I find rather disappointing about these rumours is that nothing is really all that creative or interesting.  Nintendo is making out like this is a super top secret stuff that will change everything.  Yet a handheld that also plugs into your TV is nothing new.  There are models of the PSP that already did that.  Sharing a lineup between a separate handheld and console is a little more new but it's very similar to the Vita/PS4 setup.  These ideas are basically Nintendo doing what Sony did years ago, except they're not stealing the successful ideas.

Ideas about a handheld that plugs into a console dock and gets a power boost from it is at least a new and different concept.  It makes sense for Nintendo to be hush hush about that and not let competitors steal it and for them to be excited about the NX's future because they're trying something the industry has not seen before.

The big rumour about the handheld you plug into the TV is so subdued that if Nintendo revealed that as the real deal and we had not been tipped off beforehand I think the reaction would be "that's it?"  Even now there are assumptions that that must just be a handheld NX and there's also a console NX.  Like the idea of passing this concept off as a CONSOLE is so ridiculous that we must assume that we're not seeing the full picture.

[KeyBilly]

Since many of us came to this prediction a couple years ago, my reaction to this is completely different than if it had come out of nowhere.  Even in this thread, I've gone through denial (they wouldn't do that!), sadness (no Mario or Metroid with PS4 graphics and physics...), and finally acceptance.  I still doubt it, only because my predictions on Nintendo are always wrong.  I also think that the head tracking to give the illusion of depth, shifting perspective with the viewer, may be included as a gimmick that could actually be more pleasant than the early VR hardware and very cheap to implement.  Wireless video streaming could also be a thing, since Nintendo already has the technology with the Wii U for minimal latency.

No matter what Nintendo does, console third party support may be a hurdle they just can't overcome at this point.  Most gamers look to other consoles or their PCs for that.  If the NX gets the portable developers instead, that is pretty exciting.  Also, the Tegra chip is good for 1080p 60 fps gaming even on the Android OS, and can also stream 4K video.  With a dedicated gaming OS, it will be a nice bump from the Wii U.

As for how they introduce it, they can always refresh the "third pillar" approach.  Basically, pretend this is a new thing rather than a replacement to either the Wii U or 3DS.  If the system sells well, pretend you never said that.

[Stogi]

Two systems that can swap games sounds more doable, more cost effective, and solves more problems. It'll still be a pain in the ass for developers, having to develop a game that works on both hardware systems. Still, this allows Nintendo to widen its support for both systems at once, and keep costs down while matching the market.

Isn't this pretty much the same routine that the PS4 and Vita have?  The Vita gets a lot of PS4 ports and that probably played a part in it's weak sales in the West since it doesn't seem like that essential of a purchase.  The 3DS is worth owning even if you don't care at all about portability because it has great games you can't get anywhere else.  If Nintendo makes the lineup of their two systems identical then their handheld loses all appeal aside from portability so the sales will be worse than the 3DS since it will lose those that just bought it for the games.  It goes from an essential videogame system to just a way to play games on the go and that's a big reason why non-Nintendo handhelds have struggled.  To focus development on one lineup of games, some sort of hybrid makes more sense.

Wait...what? Do you know how the Vita/PS4 Link works? You have to be within an internet/router connection for it to work. It is connecting to your PS4 and sending the game via an IP to your Vita. Having two systems swap games, like I propose, is a completely different method (and a much better one).

Furthermore, having one game you swap and having two games, one of which is a port, is also completely different than what I'm talking about.

[Adrock]

I was never opposed to the idea of a hybrid. I thought that was where Nintendo was headed eventually, just not for another generation or two. I remained skeptical because I didn't think the technology was where it needed to be to do so correctly, and the verdict is out of that one. What do you sacrifice in order to launch this in the near future? The expectation is a single device acting as the best of both worlds; the reality is a single device that's mediocre at two things.

As someone who merely tolerates handheld gaming just to play those games, a hybrids more or less works for my habits. I get to play all those games on a TV. At the same time, a shared library did the same thing. If NX ultimately ends up being only a portable that can plug into a dock with no dedicated console, I don't see that as "a brand new concept." The Razer Edge Pro was basically that. It's easy to point out that the Razer Edge Pro failed, but that's not the mark against it. I believe Nintendo could take that concept much further. However, I don't believe the concept is different enough.

I'm in the camp that thinks Nintendo has to offer something different, and if it ever hopes of taking back significant market share it eventually has to knock out either Sony or Microsoft (probably Microsoft). Nintendo can't do that by offering the same thing because there's no real reason why anyone would just drop an entire ecosystem all their friends are part of. Being the platform that ends up in more homes by virtue of second-console status is the path of least resistance. Nintendo takes back market share without taking on Sony and Microsoft. I think that was always the plan, but Nintendo just couldn't figure out how to crack it in a sustainable manner (Wii was lightning in a bottle). Nintendo doesn't care about being first. I mean, it'll take being first, but it mainly cares about profits.

What's that have to do with this latest NX rumor? Well, if the SemiAccurate rumor from May also proves true, Nvidia gave up the farm to get Nintendo's business. That means Nintendo gets better performance for a lower price which could mean higher profit margins... just not on hardware. If Nintendo is smart, it will pass those savings onto consumers in order put NX in homes with the intent to sell more software with a larger install base.

The problem is that the best portable hardware is still low-end hardware which ultimately means alienating an entire segment of the market as well as most Western third parties. This is where I think a shared library would benefit Nintendo. It wouldn't launch high-end hardware because that would price the console out of its primary audience. However, if Nintendo has a product for that audience (e.g. an NX portable-hybrid), it can finally launch an enthusiast console without fear that the software won't also sell. Yeah, the dedicated console would undoubtedly sell worse than the portable-hybrid, but that's not the point of launching it.

One or the other is not different enough. Together, Nintendo might have something.

[Agent-X-]

I was never opposed to the idea of a hybrid. I thought that was where Nintendo was headed eventually, just not for another generation or two. I remained skeptical because I didn't think the technology was where it needed to be to do so correctly, and the verdict is out of that one. What do you sacrifice in order to launch this in the near future? The expectation is a single device acting as the best of both worlds; the reality is a single device that's mediocre at two things.

As someone who merely tolerates handheld gaming just to play those games, a hybrids more or less works for my habits. I get to play all those games on a TV. At the same time, a shared library did the same thing. If NX ultimately ends up being only a portable that can plug into a dock with no dedicated console, I don't see that as "a brand new concept." The Razer Edge Pro was basically that. It's easy to point out that the Razer Edge Pro failed, but that's not the mark against it. I believe Nintendo could take that concept much further. However, I don't believe the concept is different enough.

I'm in the camp that thinks Nintendo has to offer something different, and if it ever hopes of taking back significant market share it eventually has to knock out either Sony or Microsoft (probably Microsoft). Nintendo can't do that by offering the same thing because there's no real reason why anyone would just drop an entire ecosystem all their friends are part of. Being the platform that ends up in more homes by virtue of second-console status is the path of least resistance. Nintendo takes back market share without taking on Sony and Microsoft. I think that was always the plan, but Nintendo just couldn't figure out how to crack it in a sustainable manner (Wii was lightning in a bottle). Nintendo doesn't care about being first. I mean, it'll take being first, but it mainly cares about profits.

What's that have to do with this latest NX rumor? Well, if the SemiAccurate rumor from May also proves true, Nvidia gave up the farm to get Nintendo's business. That means Nintendo gets better performance for a lower price which could mean higher profit margins... just not on hardware. If Nintendo is smart, it will pass those savings onto consumers in order put NX in homes with the intent to sell more software with a larger install base.

The problem is that the best portable hardware is still low-end hardware which ultimately means alienating an entire segment of the market as well as most Western third parties. This is where I think a shared library would benefit Nintendo. It wouldn't launch high-end hardware because that would price the console out of its primary audience. However, if Nintendo has a product for that audience (e.g. an NX portable-hybrid), it can finally launch an enthusiast console without fear that the software won't also sell. Yeah, the dedicated console would undoubtedly sell worse than the portable-hybrid, but that's not the point of launching it.

One or the other is not different enough. Together, Nintendo might have something.

What if the portable GPU was used as a secondary GPU when docked? It could do PhysX. I currently use my Intel integrated GPU for additional support to my primary GPU in games like GTA5 and Skyrim. I wonder if Nintendo's solution could be similar?

As it stands, there's actually really no way of getting around this. The portable GPU will be used in conjunction with the dock GPU whether it's a full SLI configuration OR it's like what I described above.


For what it's worth, the NX may officially be a dual GPU gaming system! That will certainly boast a smooth 1080p framerate!