Author Topic: Switchmas Eve Rumors and Speculations Thread  (Read 668755 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline nickmitch

  • You can edit these yourself now?!
  • Score: 82
    • View Profile
    • FACEBOOK!
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1500 on: July 19, 2016, 11:18:51 PM »
Just taking the temperature of the room here... neither Sony or Microsoft is trotting out the dogs and ponies at Gamescom this year. They have booths, but no live conferences.

There's no way Nintendo would debut a new system in their weakest market, is there?

On the one hand, Nintendo is riding on a lot of momentum right now.  Pokemon Go is a powerhouse, and the NES Mini is getting people's attention.  A lot of eyes are on them right now.

On the other hand, how long can Nintendo ride this momentum?  The system is due in March, Gamescon is in August.  That's 7 months.  In the meantime, the NES mini will launch, Johto Pokemon for Go (probably?), and Pokemon (bd)SM.

But then, what else would they show?  More details on the mini? amiibo that are long overdue? those two Wii U games they have left? the vitality sensor?  Maybe a tease and a showing at TGS? That's what I'm thinking.

Edit: sentence fragments
« Last Edit: July 20, 2016, 12:11:07 PM by nickmitch »
TVman is dead. I killed him and took his posts.

Offline MagicCow64

  • Still no title
  • Score: 9
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1501 on: July 20, 2016, 12:17:01 AM »
Everything is so quiet at this point that I think there's going to be a major "tea table flip" when the NX is finally revealed, possibly on the level of the Gamecube--->Wii shakeup. It's maybe the most interesting (potential) thing in the industry right now!

Offline Ian Sane

  • Champion for Urban Champion
  • Score: 1
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1502 on: July 20, 2016, 04:39:39 PM »
Any talk about casual gamers in relation to the NX is an obvious turn-off for me.  Somehow I can see Nintendo thinking they were targeting the hardcore gamers with the Wii U and it didn't work so they should double-down on the casuals with the NX.  I really am not interested in the NX growing the industry or attracting casual players - I just want a competent console with both Nintendo games and strong third party support.

As for Pokémon Go and the NES Mini helping build momentum for the NX, I don't know if they will.  Ideally Nintendo would love it if people being introduced to or re-acquainted with Pokémon by Go will end up transitioning to the "real" Pokémon games on the 3DS and its successor (which might be the NX depending on what it is).  But that was the dream with the Wii.  All those new customers that were on board for Wii Sports and Wii Fit were supposed to "graduate" to the other deeper Nintendo games.  Wii Sports fan today - Zelda fan tomorrow.  But that didn't happen.  They played their handful of Wii Series casual titles and then never bought anything else or transitioned to the Wii U.

The theory is that these people are merely intimidated by the appearance of how complex videogames appear and would like videogames in general if they had the right title to introduce them to gaming.  That's not how it actually works.  It turns out the simple design of the "beginner" game is all they really need to be content until they get bored and find something else to do.  There is no interest in going from something one-dimensional like Wii Sports to something more complicated and deep like Zelda.  They're all fine with sticking with the simple design and will move from one simple game to another but not "up" to anything more.  So odds are a lot of the Pokémon Go players are content with Pokémon Go and they don't have any desire to move to the complexity of the proper Pokémon games.  The rest of the Go players would be Pokémon fans that already own the proper games and will continue to do so.

And it makes sense that this doesn't happen because it doesn't happen with anything else.  Do you know that many people that listen to pop music that "graduate" to more challenging stuff or do they just like pop and stick with it?  Or how about people that go see dumbed down blockbusters and then move on to arty dramas?  Is McDonald's the gateway to fine dining?  No.  There are lowest-common denominators that people embrace and stick with.  The thing is the sort of person that wants to play a more complicated and deep videogame didn't need some casual game to hook them in.  The very concept of videogames intrigued them from the start.  So Pokémon Go is not going to result in a bunch of new Nintendo customers.  But if it creates good buzz for Nintendo then maybe they can use that to create hype with gamers or convince third parties that the NX will be a success and they should make games for it.  I don't think the Go success will transition to console success but that doesn't mean Nintendo can't convince third parties that it will.

Offline NWR_insanolord

  • Rocket Fuel Malt Liquor....DAMN!
  • NWR Staff Pro
  • Score: -18986
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1503 on: July 20, 2016, 05:51:30 PM »
It's possible to both appeal to casual players and have a console that ticks off all the boxes for people like us at the same time. Look at the DS, or the PS2.
Insanolord is a terrible moderator.

J.P. Corbran
NWR Community Manager and Soccer Correspondent

Offline ShyGuy

  • Fight Me!
  • *
  • Score: -9660
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1504 on: July 20, 2016, 07:02:51 PM »
I wonder if we will see a difference in what casual means to Nintendo. Casuals play Pokemon Go, casuals are the target market for the NES box this Christmas. Those seem to be a different flavor than Wii Sports or Wii Fit.

Offline BranDonk Kong

  • Eat your f'ing cat!
  • Score: 10131
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1505 on: July 20, 2016, 07:37:36 PM »
NX will be an Xbox One S with an NES Classic plugged into the HDMI Input on it. Confirmed.
I think it says on the box, 'No Hispanics' " - Jeff Green of EA

Offline nickmitch

  • You can edit these yourself now?!
  • Score: 82
    • View Profile
    • FACEBOOK!
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1506 on: July 20, 2016, 09:28:26 PM »
It's possible to both appeal to casual players and have a console that ticks off all the boxes for people like us at the same time. Look at the DS, or the PS2.

Both ancient, pre-iPhone machines.
TVman is dead. I killed him and took his posts.

Offline NWR_insanolord

  • Rocket Fuel Malt Liquor....DAMN!
  • NWR Staff Pro
  • Score: -18986
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1507 on: July 20, 2016, 09:32:49 PM »
It's possible to both appeal to casual players and have a console that ticks off all the boxes for people like us at the same time. Look at the DS, or the PS2.

Both ancient, pre-iPhone machines.

The market isn't as broad as it was before smartphones, but I think there's still a significant audience of casual players who are open to buying dedicated gaming hardware. If anything, the iPhone cutting off a chunk of that market actually makes it easier to design something that appeals to both casuals and more dedicated players.
Insanolord is a terrible moderator.

J.P. Corbran
NWR Community Manager and Soccer Correspondent

Offline ShyGuy

  • Fight Me!
  • *
  • Score: -9660
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1508 on: July 20, 2016, 11:55:25 PM »
Quality of Life tidbit, does this go under NX? Who knows!

Quote
...improve their QOL in a fun manner by making sleep and fatigue status visible and offering various services based on this information.
What does this even mean? 'You look tired, there is a day spa five miles from your house' ?

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2016/07/nintendo_reconfirms_march_2017_nx_launch_and_quality_of_life_concept_development

Offline Agent-X-

  • I speak Gibberish
  • Score: 0
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1509 on: July 21, 2016, 11:14:43 AM »
As for Pokémon Go and the NES Mini helping build momentum for the NX, I don't know if they will.  Ideally Nintendo would love it if people being introduced to or re-acquainted with Pokémon by Go will end up transitioning to the "real" Pokémon games on the 3DS and its successor (which might be the NX depending on what it is).  But that was the dream with the Wii.  All those new customers that were on board for Wii Sports and Wii Fit were supposed to "graduate" to the other deeper Nintendo games.  Wii Sports fan today - Zelda fan tomorrow.  But that didn't happen.  They played their handful of Wii Series casual titles and then never bought anything else or transitioned to the Wii U.

The theory is that these people are merely intimidated by the appearance of how complex videogames appear and would like videogames in general if they had the right title to introduce them to gaming.  That's not how it actually works.  It turns out the simple design of the "beginner" game is all they really need to be content until they get bored and find something else to do.  There is no interest in going from something one-dimensional like Wii Sports to something more complicated and deep like Zelda.  They're all fine with sticking with the simple design and will move from one simple game to another but not "up" to anything more.  So odds are a lot of the Pokémon Go players are content with Pokémon Go and they don't have any desire to move to the complexity of the proper Pokémon games.  The rest of the Go players would be Pokémon fans that already own the proper games and will continue to do so.


That's an oversimplification, though, because I do know a lot of people who got into PC gaming by being exposed to WoW, The Sims, or similar. While these same people didn't necessarily "graduate" to high fidelity games (ie. graphically intense FPS games that require cutting edge hardware), they most certainly bought every expansion pack and invested gobs of time into their games. I've already been thinking about how Nintendo could possibly want to build a bridge from Pokemon Go to NX, but I maybe giving them too much credit. I think it can be done in a very popular way that gives incentive to own an NX without hurting the mobile experience. They will not get every GO player, but I'm seeing a lot of addicted players right now who don't fit the Nintendo playing stereotype, and those are the gamers Nintendo ought to go after. Nintendo has hopefully been working with Niantic regarding an NX app (something that is an expansion and not the exact same mobile app, etc). I would hope to see it day-1, free to play, etc.


Beyond that, one shouldn't expect to see an influx of millions of people buying up NX solely because of Pokemon GO. There just are a lot of people who are playing GO because someone else is playing it.

Offline nickmitch

  • You can edit these yourself now?!
  • Score: 82
    • View Profile
    • FACEBOOK!
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1510 on: July 21, 2016, 01:12:51 PM »
If people who get into the Sims and WoW are only buying expansions, then that speaks more to Ian's point than yours.  Nintendo could expand Pokemon Go and cash in some more, but that still doesn't necessarily translate to hardware sales.

Still, I think Nintendo should be able to parlay the good press into something.  They've got everyone's attention again, they just gotta wow people.
TVman is dead. I killed him and took his posts.

Offline Fatty The Hutt

  • Zut alors!
  • Score: 34
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1511 on: July 21, 2016, 02:35:30 PM »
It is simply not true that the folks that bought a Wii for WiiSports didn't "graduate" to more traditional or more complicated games. They absolutely did. They all bought NSMBWii for a start. And Guitar Hero was best selling on Wii over other consoles and that is one complicated-ass game. The attach rate for Wii was quite good as I recall.
But, yeah, smartphones.
Oui, Mon Gars!

Offline Agent-X-

  • I speak Gibberish
  • Score: 0
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1512 on: July 21, 2016, 04:07:27 PM »
If people who get into the Sims and WoW are only buying expansions, then that speaks more to Ian's point than yours.  Nintendo could expand Pokemon Go and cash in some more, but that still doesn't necessarily translate to hardware sales.

Still, I think Nintendo should be able to parlay the good press into something.  They've got everyone's attention again, they just gotta wow people.

I think it could translate to hardware sales. Over the lifespan of those games, the expansions eventually required hardware upgrades (although modest ones) to continue. I think my point still stands that people who are not traditional PC gamers buy the hardware to play those games. Some people keep a decent laptop just for the purpose of playing one game.


Ian's point was that people who are only intersted in playing Pokemon Go wouldn't buy an NX because they won't graduate to more complicated games. They don't need to graduate to more complicated games to buy more hardware.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2016, 04:14:27 PM by Agent-X- »

Offline Louieturkey

  • Terrifying fantasies
  • Score: -3
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1513 on: July 21, 2016, 04:14:31 PM »
It is simply not true that the folks that bought a Wii for WiiSports didn't "graduate" to more traditional or more complicated games. They absolutely did. They all bought NSMBWii for a start. And Guitar Hero was best selling on Wii over other consoles and that is one complicated-ass game. The attach rate for Wii was quite good as I recall.
But, yeah, smartphones.
Yep, most of Nintendo's known franchises had their best selling games on the Wii, including Mario Kart, 2D Mario, Smash Bros, etc.  There was a good attach rate for the Wii.  Maybe not at first, but once people started seeing other things they could do, they started buying other games.

Offline Stratos

  • Stale lazy meme pirate
  • Score: 70
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1514 on: July 21, 2016, 04:50:36 PM »
Hasn't Nintendo stated that Pokemon Go will work with Sun/Moon? This could lay the groundwork for some more advanced connections with NX titles. Imagine a game like the Wiiware Pokemon Farm game where you could store pokemon there, or the online Box subscription services.
My Game Collection
NNID: Chronocast
Switch: SW-6786-5514-9978
3DS Friend Code: 0447-5723-6467
XBL Gamertag: Chronocast

Offline TOPHATANT123

  • Wear a hat that's foil lined in case an alien's inclined to probe your butt or read your mind
  • Score: 12
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1515 on: July 21, 2016, 05:03:11 PM »
Average Number of Games Sold Per Console
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html


NES = 8.08 Games
Game Boy = 4.22 Games
SNES = 7.72 Games
Nintendo 64 = 6.83 Games
Game Boy Advance = 4.63 Games
Game Cube = 9.59 Games
DS = 6.16 Games
Wii = 9 Games
3DS = 4.66 Games
Wii U = 6.57 Games

Low attach rate for handhelds can be attributed to the fact that handhelds are usually upgraded or can be lost or damaged.

Offline Agent-X-

  • I speak Gibberish
  • Score: 0
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1516 on: July 21, 2016, 06:18:33 PM »
I am mostly shocked that the Wii had such a high attach rate. In looking at the SNES, I would think that its higher install base at least factored into the lower attach rate, but then I also know that the price of games was absolutely absurd and game renting/sharing was huge. By comparison, the Wii had a bigger install base and a higher attach rate, which is just mind boggling.

The thing I find fascinating about the Wii is that while I own a lot of games for it, I hate the system. I won't even play Wii games on my Wii U. The games mostly hurt my eyes with jaggies and then there's the Wiimote. Blah. /rant

Offline Luigi Dude

  • Truth Bomber
  • Score: 4
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1517 on: July 21, 2016, 09:42:00 PM »
I am mostly shocked that the Wii had such a high attach rate. In looking at the SNES, I would think that its higher install base at least factored into the lower attach rate, but then I also know that the price of games was absolutely absurd and game renting/sharing was huge. By comparison, the Wii had a bigger install base and a higher attach rate, which is just mind boggling.

The Wii was a cultural phenomenon with an insane amount of must own titles for kids and families during most of that time.  Between 2006 to 2010, the Wii had a complete monopoly over the family market since Microsoft and Sony were busy burning all their money on the 18-32 male dudebro crowd during this time.  Not hard to imagine the average Wii household having 9 games since it had a wide variety of games that appealed to not only the kids but also their parents as well.

That's why the Wii despite having a larger install base also has a higher attachment rate then the SNES because it was a system that successfully appeal to the parents as well as the kids.  Yes there were parents that played older Nintendo systems as well but no where close to the mass appeal the Wii was offering.  It also helps that a lot of parents who bought Wii's for their kids were probably kids during the NES/SNES era as well so that's where Nintendo's nostalgia is pretty handy.  Hell, that was one of the big selling point for NSMB Wii showing how parents who grew up playing 2D Mario can now play with their kids at the same time.
I’m gonna have you play every inch of this game! - Masahiro Sakurai

Offline Stratos

  • Stale lazy meme pirate
  • Score: 70
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1518 on: July 21, 2016, 10:49:14 PM »
I would also attribute the low attach rate for handhelds to all of the little tykes whom were bought one system with one game as more of a toy than an actual console intended to have a collection of games.


I am still surprised how many toddlers (1-4 year olds) I have seen with a DSi, DSiXL, 3DS, or New 3DS and it seems a lot of them have one game, like a Mario or Lego title.


I'd never buy a kid that young their own $100+ device like that because they tend to lose or break them much more easily.
My Game Collection
NNID: Chronocast
Switch: SW-6786-5514-9978
3DS Friend Code: 0447-5723-6467
XBL Gamertag: Chronocast

Offline Ian Sane

  • Champion for Urban Champion
  • Score: 1
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1519 on: July 22, 2016, 11:50:44 AM »
I'm going to assume that attach rate would take into consideration all games including VC titles.  Old consoles like the SNES didn't have any cheap games.  A modern gaming system can have cheap digital titles that only cost a few bucks so that would contribute to a higher attach rate.  During the cartridge years there weren't even "greatest hits" discount lines and no cheap bin at Wal-Mart.  When every game costs a fair amount you're going to buy less.

And of course last gen lasted longer than other gens before it.  The PS3 and X360 probably have really skewered attach rates due to how long they were on the market.  If you're buying games over seven or eight years versus five then, yeah, you're going to end up owning more games for that system.

Offline rlse9

  • Score: -1
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1520 on: July 22, 2016, 02:07:49 PM »
I'm curious how much of the 9 game attach rate is first party games?  And it's a good question how virtual console/WiiWare/eShop figure into to these numbers.  And do they include pack in games in their software sales or not?  That would skew the numbers between consoles.  I also wonder how the attach rates of PS3/XB360 compare.

Offline Louieturkey

  • Terrifying fantasies
  • Score: -3
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1521 on: July 22, 2016, 02:26:35 PM »
I'm pretty sure it includes pack in numbers.  I highly doubt it includes digital games, or at least ones that weren't announced directly by the makers of the games.  Nintendo rarely let anyone know how many VC games were being sold.  Maybe Wiiware is included but I also highly doubt that.  Only this month did US game tracking data start including digital sales on PSN & XBL.  They weren't tracking those numbers during the Wii/PS3/X360 years.


Actually, I take some of this back.  Since it's Nintendo putting this number out there, it could very well include digital sales.  I wonder what NPD would put as the attach rates on each system.

Offline Louieturkey

  • Terrifying fantasies
  • Score: -3
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1522 on: July 22, 2016, 02:53:31 PM »
I looked closer and based on the area breakdown, they only include digital downloads of disc based software on the Wii U and card based softward on the 3DS.  So I don't think they include digital sales on any of those other numbers.  Wii software is discs sold at retail and so on.

Offline TOPHATANT123

  • Wear a hat that's foil lined in case an alien's inclined to probe your butt or read your mind
  • Score: 12
    • View Profile
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1523 on: July 22, 2016, 08:16:04 PM »
3rd Party Published Games Compared to 1st Party (Excludes Download Games like Virtual Console or Wiiware)
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/library/historical_data/pdf/number_of_titles_e1603.pdf

Famicom JP 1st Party 49, 3rd Party 998
Famicom Disk System JP 1st Party 42, 3rd Party 187
NES US 1st Party 72, 3rd Party 607

Game Boy JP 1st Party 63, 3rd Party 1182
Game Boy US 1st Party 106, 3rd Party 859

Super Famicom JP 1st Party 30, 3rd Party 1369
SNES US 1st Party 52, 3rd Party 667

N64 JP 1st Party 43, 3rd Party 153
N64 US 1st Party 53, 3rd Party 244

GBA JP 1st Party 107, 3rd Party 679
GBA US 1st Party 71, 3rd Party 950

Game Cube JP 1st Party 55, 3rd Party 220
Game Cube US 1st Party 48, 3rd Party 504

DS JP 1st Party 132, 3rd Party 1713
DS US 1st Party 98, 3rd Party 1639

Wii JP 1st Party 76, 3rd Party 387
Wii US 1st Party 55, 3rd Party 1206

3DS JP 1st Party 62, 3rd Party 472
3DS US 1st Party 66, 3rd Party 344

Wii U JP
1st Party 35, 3rd Party 67
Wii U US
1st Party 36, 3rd Party 114
« Last Edit: July 22, 2016, 08:18:57 PM by TOPHATANT123 »

Offline Shaymin

  • Not my circus, not my monkeys
  • NWR Staff
  • Score: 70
    • View Profile
    • You're on it
Re: NX Rumors and Speculation Thread (#Team2017 Wins Again!)
« Reply #1524 on: July 22, 2016, 08:38:26 PM »
Also, the first system to get a Player's Choice line was the Super Nintendo.
Donald Theriault - News Editor, Nintendo World Report / 2016 Nintendo World Champion
Tutorial box out.