Author Topic: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas  (Read 13671 times)

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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #25 on: December 10, 2013, 08:35:52 PM »
Possibly. If the mafia hit every person who wins the role, (because there would be a new winner every night in that scenario) then they leave themselves open to Santa and his crew which could be far more deadly, provided none of them attempt to win the ability. At the same time, none of the mafia could ever win that ability because if they did and then that person wasn't whacked, it would be highly suspicious. Of course, they could also use that to frame someone so there is always a guessing game like any event should be.

Still, I can see it doing the opposite of what you want and thereby have it cause less participation if that was the case. And why should I argue a free protection when it looks like I would most likely be today's winner provided I don't get voted out?

Let's see if I can't use this to break the game. Santa choose me as today's detective and then I will get two investigations and be protected. Meanwhile, choose a doctor to help protect you, (I can give you a short list of a couple people I currently would trust) and then we should be protected from the mafia going forward.

But now another thorny issue arises. What if the mafia member who can nullify a role uses it on the winner of the detective ability for the day? Is that ability still protected? If Santa gives me a detective kit, would I lose that ability but keep the won ability? Would I lose both? Would I keep both by being protected from my win?
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Offline pokepal148

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #26 on: December 10, 2013, 08:36:59 PM »
In a normal game I would usually hold off and wait for everyone else to check in before making judgments, but that doesn't always happen here.

And a random/joke bandwagon on Day 1 is the perfect way to deflect suspicion and send a townie off with little repercussions. Seeing as lolmonade was mafia last game (if I can recall) I do suspect him less. The chances of him earning a mafia role two times in a row is lower than a previous townie getting one.
Thatguy and jrlibrarian were also mafia last time...
I may follow khush's judgment here but I'm not entirely certain, for now I'm stepping back to avoid the hasty decisions I made last time that screwed me over before

Offline Mop it up

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #27 on: December 10, 2013, 08:39:35 PM »
Vote Stratos

Wait, what? Aw nuts.

Offline Spak-Spang

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #28 on: December 10, 2013, 08:54:30 PM »
Do not make assumptions on probability.  I had that problem one game I played.  I assumed people were safe because of probability.  The only probability that matters is people have a 4/15 or for simplicity almost 1/4 chance of being mafia.  That is pretty high.

Also, we have a 1/4ish chance of voting a mafia member out this day one.  It is pretty high, but still unlikely.  Let's hope we get lucky then.

Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #29 on: December 10, 2013, 08:55:45 PM »
EDIT: I see Spak-Spang has made the same point but I'm still posting mine with examples. Examples, yo!
 
On the point of previous mafia members, I don't put any weight in that. My first five games I was mafia. Of course, the first 4 had games with two mafia (and in one case 3) and the fifth was an 11 player game with only two mafia members and I got chosen as one of the two. There are other people who've been back-to-back mafia members before as well. Vudu was mafia 3 times in a row at one point. Pretty sure apdude had a run at being mafia a few games in a row.

Therefore, never eliminate a suspect based on their role last game.
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Offline lolmonade

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #30 on: December 10, 2013, 09:09:25 PM »
Given that I have no real basis on my original vote, coupled with not sure if losing an active player is a good idea this early, i'm going to rescind my prior selection and vote Nickmitch.

Offline Glad0s

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #31 on: December 10, 2013, 09:31:06 PM »
Vote Insanolord, just because I'm supporting PixPix. Because he's British, likes RFN, and has excellent taste in music. So he's like almost Greg Leahy at this point.

EDIT: well as much as I feel like I shouldn't trust him, Khush's whole argument is actually quite logical. So... Vote Nickmitch
« Last Edit: December 10, 2013, 09:43:18 PM by Glad0s »
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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #32 on: December 10, 2013, 09:34:55 PM »
While those are fine reasons to vote, why not vote for Nickmitch? If he gets voted out and turns out to be mafia, then you'll look suspicious for trying to start a bandwagon and opposite vote for someone else. If nickmitch is innocent, then the vote will be on me and you have nothing to fear for blame in such a mistake. Not to mention, Insanolord has yet to show up and realize the game has begun or what his role is. Therefore, he is not a threat right now to any of us.
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Offline Toruresu

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #33 on: December 10, 2013, 10:28:48 PM »
How late am I to this party?! I confess I haven't read much of the rules and I usually don't trust vudu, shyguy and kush in any mafia game. That being said, I'll join the bandwagon.

vote nickmitch
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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #34 on: December 10, 2013, 10:40:06 PM »
If I was trying to start a bandwagon, you'd be dead already.

What did I tell you?

And I'm laughing at the fact that so many of you are saying you don't trust me but you'll vote with me anyways. Thanks for the vote of confidence guys. Can't wait until tomorrow when Nickmitch turns out to be Santa or something.
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Offline Spak-Spang

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #35 on: December 10, 2013, 10:45:03 PM »
Another rule clarification could be asked.  Can someone be given two roles?  Like doctor and Investigator.  Or get the investigator role and the boozer role?  That could be a valid strategy for Santa once somebody has been cleared.


Offline Toruresu

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2013, 10:46:54 PM »
Khush...Are you trolling us all? Investigator, check Khush out!
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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #37 on: December 10, 2013, 10:51:45 PM »
Khush...Are you trolling us all? Investigator, check Khush out!

Why do that when you can just trust me and come along for the wild ride and see where it leads?
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Offline Spak-Spang

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #38 on: December 10, 2013, 10:54:14 PM »
Well, what I find is funny...if people don't trust you...then why are they allowing you to post all over the place and assuredly get the boozer role.  It's a joke.  I think people trust to distrust you...but really they are just distrustingly trusting you...or something like that.

I wish I had posted more to the role though.  Not because I distrust you...but because I never planned on posting this much, and probably won't post this much again this game...so it was my only chance. 


Offline Toruresu

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #39 on: December 10, 2013, 10:57:15 PM »
Khush...Are you trolling us all? Investigator, check Khush out!

Why do that when you can just trust me and come along for the wild ride and see where it leads?

It's gonna be a wild one you say? I don't know wether to smile or cry. It still haunts, that game, when you sent all hits in advanced and just sat back.
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Offline Spak-Spang

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #40 on: December 10, 2013, 11:01:42 PM »
I do think Khush brings up an interesting point about his "god" like status in this game.  He has some amazing track record.  But, it isn't infallible...and in the end, he really wants to just play the game.  Something is usually doesn't get to do. 

Most likely Khush is a regular townie, and when/if he is voted out everyone will have egg on his face.  It always seems the Khush bandwagon is a strong bandwagon, but then not usually successful. 

And yes, I am just rambling for no reason...ok...well I have one reason.
 

Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #41 on: December 10, 2013, 11:02:03 PM »
Blame the other players. They forced me to have to reason with them to change their votes and try a different suspect. If they had just let me be, I wouldn't have needed to post so much.

However, I grow more concerned as the day nears completion. I think if Nickmitch was mafia, he would have tried to come in and defend himself at this point. He's seen what's going on. The fact he hasn't either suggests that he doesn't have much support from his mafia who are absent still, have much time to really play and doesn't mind getting offed to not have to worry about the game or is a townie and has given up.

The lack of response is not what I expected at this point.
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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #42 on: December 10, 2013, 11:06:43 PM »
Khush...Are you trolling us all? Investigator, check Khush out!

Why do that when you can just trust me and come along for the wild ride and see where it leads?

It's gonna be a wild one you say? I don't know wether to smile or cry. It still haunts, that game, when you sent all hits in advanced and just sat back.

Ha ha. Man, that was an incredible game. I was reading it again a few weeks back because something triggered a memory about it. When I look over how the hit choices played out, it was an incredible feat of luck, mixed with a crazy strategy and I still owe Maxi and Mop it up big for carrying the load and keeping the townies trust and focus off. I don't know why you are haunted by me. Mop it up is the one who did a number on you as you mentioned at the end of the game. I just sent in hits and disappeared.
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Offline Spak-Spang

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #43 on: December 10, 2013, 11:07:56 PM »
Hmmm, interesting. 

Though, I remember the game I played I tried to defend myself and it just cast more suspicion on me.  Has he posted at all?  Maybe he is just laying low this day...and didn't even see he was voted on.  Anyway, inactive players annoy me...so I am still OK with the vote.

Offline lolmonade

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #44 on: December 10, 2013, 11:11:47 PM »
Or maybe Nickmitch realizes that there's what, 4 or 5 votes against him already, and it's futile to try to negotiate a pardon?

Offline Spak-Spang

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #45 on: December 10, 2013, 11:12:50 PM »
Khush:  I think you are using my strategy from last game.  Talk as much as possible and if you are killed you are nothing...a regular townie...it gives more time for strategy elsewhere. 

I like it. 

**This post is only because I want to get the boozer role.** 

I think I will quit trying after this post though.  I feel like I am being annoying. 

Offline Glad0s

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #46 on: December 10, 2013, 11:24:26 PM »
Khush:  I think you are using my strategy from last game.  Talk as much as possible and if you are killed you are nothing...a regular townie...it gives more time for strategy elsewhere. 

I like it. 

**This post is only because I want to get the boozer role.** 

I think I will quit trying after this post though.  I feel like I am being annoying.


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Offline Khushrenada

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #47 on: December 10, 2013, 11:26:47 PM »
and in the end, he really wants to just play the game.

Yes. When I get the opportunity, it is always a pleasure. Truthfully, I would like to just play a slower game and not have to rush, rush, rush in my actions. But other players want to put heat on me all the time and right away that I feel I have to act fast or lose. If I do try and stay low key or just mess around and play for a few laughs, I seem to get killed faster.

I wish more people would engage me though. I mean, what do you think is a better victory? Killing me day 1 or 2 and getting a mafia win or keeping me alive to the end and getting a mafia win? You might say a win is a win but Stevey did the latter and it is still my favorite loss. He and his mafia suckered me good and beat my townie alliance just in time to win.

Another win I look on fondly is the Charlie Brown mafia. In that game, I tried to keep as many townie roles alive as I could and keep the stronger players alive longer which I mainly succeeded at except for having to kill Thatguy Night 3 but it had to be done. I think there was one other role I had to eliminate on the last night to seal victory but it just meant the game was over at that point. That was a good win because it was earned against good competition.

That's what keeps me coming back for more. There are a lot of good players in this game who I consider high level threats. Maybe that's my problem. Since everyone looks at me, I'm the only looking at them thereby making me the big threat. Still, if they really wanted it and played accordingly, they could probably beat me on the road to victory. I'm just one player and without support, it is hard for me to accomplish that much.
 
EDIT: Also, Nickmitch has posted in other threads today including the funhouse so he has been around.
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Offline Stratos

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Re: Mafia LX: Holiday Murder Mystery Mafia (HM3) - 1st Day of Christmas
« Reply #48 on: December 11, 2013, 12:01:59 AM »
Thread Lock. Counting posts.

And...Khush gets boozer award.
Khush- 12
Spak- 8
Silenced- 5
Rest less than 5 posts.
Everyone has until 10pm to get in their night actions if you have not already.

Final Vote Count
Nickmitch - 5
Insanolord - 1
Stratos (Host) - 1
« Last Edit: December 11, 2013, 01:03:46 AM by Stratos »
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