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Not a hater but... (future prediction)

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Even with more information, we'd still just be guessing. That said, for reasons already stated, I just can't see Switch struggling to reach 15 million lifetime sales.


--- Quote from: Adrock on December 04, 2016, 03:08:00 PM ---Anyway, even before January's full unveiling, at this juncture I consider anything less than 3DS-family sales to be underperforming for Switch. Underperforming also doesn't mean failure. If it ended up with 50 million units sold, that's still good, but it should still sell more. After next year, Switch will have almost all of Nintendo's first party output. To me, that's more than enough to push it over 15 million sales. Nintendo might get that in Switch's first year.

--- End quote ---

Idk about this, I mean granted I'm by no means an expert and don't really follow sales much. But hasn't 3DS moved like, 60 million units? Do consoles outsell handhelds usually? (I'm asking because I wouldn't know!)
Given Nintendo's track record with things like N64, GameCube, Wii U wouldn't something in the 30-40 mill frame make more sense? I don't know if it's really going to take off like Wii did to be honest.

If people really start using Switches out of the house so they're visible in public, they have fun unique games as well as the ones people want (shooters, sports games, western RPGs), then yeah I could see it being successful. Definitely think you're right that it will surpass Wii U, but it will need to do so fairly quickly if they really want it to catch on.

Things like battery life, durability and lightning-in-a-bottle moments of tapping into whatever cultural zeitgeist is relevant at the time all seem like (at this point) still very uncertain aspects. Hoping to be wrong here but I definitely understand why people have reservations.


--- Quote from: Adrock on December 04, 2016, 03:08:00 PM ---
--- Quote from: Luigi Dude on December 04, 2016, 07:17:30 AM ---The Switch has already fixed most of the Wii U's biggest problem, (name, design, marketing and first year game lineup)
--- End quote ---
though some rumors put it near Xbox One in terms of performance

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So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar? The Switch lacks the hardware or library to compete with PS 4 /Xbox one in the home, and as for the portable aspect, sure, we all own 3DSs and probably still play them quite regularly (I do, currently play M & L Dream Team) but this is a Nintendo-centric message board. The portable console market is evaporating and is being quickly replaced with mobile phones. The Switch is a niche product and will sell well to a niche audience (us) but niche doesn't sell in the multiples of tens of millions. I honestly think that 15 million might be generous.


--- Quote from: Miyamoto on December 04, 2016, 04:27:27 PM ---So Nintendo's new console is less powerful than something that's been out for four years. Why does this seem familiar?

--- End quote ---

The difference there is Switch is going to have more than one year at the roughly same level of power as its contemporaries. Developers already had PS4/Xbox One devkits by the time Wii U was out, whereas they're going to be supported for several years after Switch launches. If it's as easy to port to from those systems as has been indicated and it doesn't totally bomb saleswise early on publishers are going to be a lot more inclined to support the thing than they were the Wii U.

Don't get me wrong, I really want the Switch to be a success, and I'd love to be posting here in a couple of years time about how I got it massively wrong, but I find it really hard to be optimistic. Everything is telling me this isn't going to work out. It's one thing for publishers to be able to easily port games to the Switch but will they do it if games fail to sell on the console?


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