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Khushrenada's Annual Oscar Thread. 2025 Edition.

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Khushrenada:
Ye gods! I can't believe Khushrenada is still doing this. No one cares about the Oscars. Why is this still a thing?  >:(

Incredibly, this will be the 12th time I'm doing this so it's just a baked in forum tradition at this point. Besides, can you imagine a world in which I didn't talk about the Oscars?



So, with that pointless beginning over with, let's dive into things.

Was 2024 a good year for movies? I'm not sure. You can always find articles of movie critics reviewing the year and talking about how it was a good year because of certain gems they felt came out. Maybe with time, I might find more of these gems but, so far, it has felt like a weak year to me but I was also expecting it to be. Last year, there was the dual writers and actors strike which slowed down production on a lot of stuff. Last time there was a big writer's strike was end of 2007 and start of 2008 and it resulted in 2008 having an incredibly weak slate of films. I could have sworn that years back, IMDB's Bottom 250 was filled with 2008 movies but looking through it now, it is much more of a mix of many different years. (Although it does feel like it's much more filled with movies from this century than last but that's also likely because of the internet being around more for more people to comment on the worst stuff that comes out currently than seeking out older stuff to pan it specifically.) Anyways, 2008 was filled with such greats as The Love Guru, Disaster Movie, The Hottie and the Nottie just to name a few of the fondly remembered titles.

That isn't to say all of 2008 was a write-off. Wall-E, The Dark Knight and Iron Man also hit theaters in 2008 but overall I'd say the bad easily outweighs the good. For that matter, the Best Picture nominees weren't that inspiring either and the talk was more about what wasn't nominated (The Dark Knight) leading to changes with Oscars and the expanded nominee field we've seen since 2009. And now, about 16 years later, while it's not exactly the same, it does feel like it was a sort of forgettable year overall. Personally, these are the 25 movies from 2024 that I've seen:

Argylle
Dune Part 2
Wicked Little Letters
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Civil War
Unfrosted
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Thelma
Horizon Part 1
A Quiet Place: Day One
Twisters
Trap
Conclave
Anora
The Wild Robot
Emilia Perez
Wicked Part 1
A Complete Unknown
The Brutalist
Gladiator II
Nickel Boys
I'm Still Here
The Colors Within
Mufasa: The Lion King

Can't believe Argylle was only a year ago. Feels like that was longer. All the talk was about Madame Web as the disaster of the year when 2024 first started although there would be other disasters along the way like Borderlands and The Crow. There's more I'd like to talk about with some of the films listed here like Horizon but for now I'm want to stick to the Oscars with the ceremony happening this Sunday. For now I will just add that I've made a list of movies from 2024 I'd like to check out at some point and this is what I've got so far:

I.S.S.
Robot Dreams
Inside Out 2
Evil Does Not Exist
Horizon Part 2
Juror #2
Sing Sing
War Game
A Real Pain
A Different Man
Hit Man
The Substance
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Wallace and Gromit: Vengence Most Foul
My Old Ass
No Other Land
Look Back
Hard Truths
Good One
Close Your Eyes
Rebel Ridge
Universal Language
Challengers
Hundreds of Beavers
Flow

Anything else you forum readers would suggest you feel is worth checking out?

Khushrenada:
Let's jump into this years nominees. As you might have gathered when looking at my lists, I've seen 9 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture with just The Substance as the remaining one to see. The Substance being a nominee is something I really didn't expect as I never saw any reviewers talking about it as a Best Picture nominee. Near the end of the year it was seen as a possibility but there was other stuff like A Real Pain or Sing Sing that were still seen as more likely. It seems like Demi Moore's speech when winning a Golden Globe for her role in the film was a huge factor in getting that movie ahead of the other bubble nominees and getting on that list of ten. I'll probably see it soon enough in a month or two as I wait for the DVD copy I've put on hold from the library just like I did with Anatomy of a Fall last year.

In regards to this year's nominees, it feels like we've gone back to ten years ago and 2014 and 2015 when there just didn't seem to be any big frontrunner and the voters were split over multiple nominees. The past few years, it's been pretty evident which movie is going to win or for most of the categories to be pretty locked in. My Oscar picks last year showed this by getting 20/23 correct picks. That is going to be very tough to do with this year's crop. It's the wildest and most divided I think I've seen. Different people and films keep winning in the precursor awards. However, this probably shouldn't be too surprising as I kind of feel its indicative of the fact that none of the movies nominated this year could be considered slam dunk great movies.

I'm going to attempt a ranking of them tomorrow since its getting late tonight but it's going to be tough since they're a real mixed bag.

Khushrenada:
Been going down a rabbit hole of what might win and what other people are predicting. People trying to show this or that stat to prove what might win. A real mess this year. But I said I'd rank the movies today so let me get on that.

Unranked - The Substance.

9. Emilia Perez - Yes, there are fans of this movie. I've seen some people sincerely praising it but I don't get what those people are seeing. This film is a mess. It's the worst nominee since Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Can't believe anybody thought it deserved to win awards and that it still is predicted to get two in Best Supporting Actress and Best Song. And, on that subject of song, how...? I get that Song can often be an underwhelming and weak category most of the time but to think any of the "songs" in Perez are Oscar Worthy is just inconceivable to me. I did a rare thing last year of a double feature at the cinema. Saw Mufasa and then Wicked. Both of these are considered musicals. Yet, it immediately hit me from the beginning of Wicked how much better the music and songs were compared to anything I'd heard from Mufasa earlier which shows the importance of the music for a musical to make it a success. It was my first time ever hearing anything from Wicked but I get why it's been a big broadway hit. Yet, even with Wicked as a nominee and showing what a real musical should look like, somehow, Emilia Perez was the frontrunner in nominations and had two songs from the movie nominated in Best Song. Just shaking my head how when it's clearly out of its league in that category which seems like it should be pretty important criteria for a musical like movie. Where's La La Land? It understood the assignment for making a musical. Anyways, there's lots of other stuff I could get into about how this movie just befuddles me but I'm moving on.

8. Nickel Boys - Some people really like this movie but it just didn't resonate for me. At times, the director threw in and included various random images and I just didn't always get what the purpose was of them or how they connected to what was happening or aiding the story in any way. They became a distraction. Likewise, it felt like it was trying to mimic the Terrence Malick style of almost free association or random included shots and moments of life but it's just not the same. Not that I always think Malick bats 100 with his movies. The first person perspective wasn't that big a deal. I've seen some comments from people that they felt it was pretentious or distracting but it didn't bother me. That said, I also don't think it did anything to make the story better or more impactful. In fact, to me, it kind of gave away the ending and where the story was possibly going. Sure enough, it ended the way I suspected. Ultimately, it just felt like a story that's been told and seen before and all the first-person and random images were just a way of trying to dress it up to make it seem like a fresh story. Instead, I think the direction works against the film and it ends up rather forgettable. I keep forgetting it's one of the nominees.

7. A Complete Unknown - Now it gets tough. Maybe I should rank this higher. Maybe it's in the right spot. But this is where the conflicted feelings begin for me and this years nominees. I've never been a big Bob Dylan fan. Can't say I've ever really sought out his music or felt any strong attachment to his songs whether performed by him or someone else. However, I did appreciate learning a bit about his early beginnings and gaining some musical knowledge and understanding about why he was such a force in music during the early 60s. It was well acted. I liked a few performances in the movie and I felt it was one of the better films to end successfully of this year's nominees while others sort of tripped up at the ending. Yet, I also thought it was a sort of drab and dingy movie to look at due to the location and settings of the film and I just realized it isn't a movie I've thought about at all since seeing it late January. Because of that lack of staying power, it's why I'm rating it lower but it's a perfectly fine movie. I wouldn't call it great but it's still pretty, pretty, pretty good. I don't know why I'm now quoting Larry David for this review.

6. Conclave - Maybe I need to watch this movie again to re-evaluate it. I think I went in expecting something else which caused some disconnect from how it ended up playing out as well as I think it is one of the movies I feel trips up at the end. Yet, it's also got great performances. There was definite enjoyment I was having throughout. I liked the cinematography and the score stood out at times. There's a couple lines and moments that have stuck with me. I was just expecting more of a thriller and conspiracy/murder mystery plot but that's not what this story is like or about. So, realizing that near the end sort of threw me and then some final info just also seemed sort of sprung on the audience without really having much to say about the implications and maybe too late to now be coming up in the story. It's well made and overall there's a lot to like about it yet it's not something I feel particularly enamored by. However, since seeing it and thinking about it all to judge it on its own merits and the story it actually is telling instead of what I was expecting, my opinion of it has gone up more than when I first walked out of the theatre. Just not enough to feel it is anything above the middle of the pack in the nominees.

5. I'm Still Here - One of the few nominees that got me to tear up and feel some emotion. I didn't realize it was based on a real life story. It's biggest flaw is that I feel it runs out of steam and sort of goes on too long. Still, the beginning in relating a happier time and then how that happiness is ended is compelling and a strong start to the film. It's just that after a pretty sold first half, it feels like it starts to spin its wheels and becomes more meandering of a story. I do think it successfully conveys its point about the psychological effect a disappearance has on those left behind. Based on that and it succeeding in engaging me on an emotional level, I'm putting it here even though a restlessness also grew within me in the latter part of the film.

4. Dune Part 2 - Dune, Dune, Dune. I don't know what to do with you but that's how I feel with most of the nominees. Coming into 2024, it was my most anticipated movie at the time. Did I like it? Yes, I suppose so. On an intellectual level, there's a lot about the movie I admire. It just ultimately left me cold. I've tried to figure out why that is. I've wondered if it is because I've seen the David Lynch version about 8 years ago and so, at times, it was sort of like it was just refreshing my memory of the story and plot points I'd known about but kind of forgotten. Was it just the amount of beige in the film with so much sand and rocks that the look and cinematography of the film just felt unchanging and monotonous? At least, that's sort of what I felt after first seeing it. This sense or idea that visually it just felt barren in ways. The trailers made it seem like there'd be a big battle with the sandworms involved but it didn't really pan out that way. The ending battle / raid isn't really that big of a conflict and after all the build-up to this fight, it didn't seem to last that long and just sort of devolves into a knifefight between two characters.

Villeneuve talked about his goal with this movie when it came out, saying, "“When Frank Herbert wrote Dune and when the book came out, he felt that the readers misunderstood him. People saw Dune as a celebration of Paul Atreides, but for him he wanted the book to be a warning regarding messianic figures. In order to correct that perception, [Herbert] wrote Dune: Messiah that is almost like an epilogue. Chani, in the second part of the book, kind of disappeared in Paul’s shadows. The character becomes less interesting. But I thought there was a strong opportunity there to create a character there who would give us a new perspective on Paul, in order to get closer to Frank Herbert’s intentions." In that regard, he nailed it. I think we take on this view and the audience is taking in these events from her perspective and thinking. By the end, when Paul takes the war to the stars and betrays Chani's love by taking the Emperor's daughter for a wife to consolidate his power, we've lost the belief in Paul that he's got the fremans best interests at heart. Yet, it also ends in a way that feels like this is act 2 of a 3-act play. Villeneuve has talked about doing one more follow-up by adapting Dune:Messiah and with the way Dune ends, it almost seems necessary to do because it just doesn't feel fully resolved which may be part of why I walked away from this recognizing that it was technically great but wondering if I really liked it or not. I guess it engaged me mentally but not emotionally is the best way to sum it up.

3. Anora -

2. The Brutalist -

1. Wicked -

Khushrenada:
As for the actual predictions this year, time to start making some guesses.

Best Actor - Adrian Brody

Has mostly won all Best Actor awards to this point. Chalamet could upset here having now already appeared in 7 Best Picture nominees (2 of which are among this year's nominees) but I think the Academy may wait further yet sort of like how DiCaprio went years before winning. Having not seen Sing Sing or A Different Man, I'm not sure if either of those would be more deserving but I have nothing against Brody winning for The Brutalist.

Best Supporting Actor - Kieran Culkin

Why couldn't it have been Macaulay? 90s childhood nostalgia aside, I'm not sure what the role was like as I haven't seen the film yet. But he's won everything up to this point so its an expected win. Personally, I'm torn between Norton and Pierce as to who I would give the win to if I had that power. I enjoyed both of their roles.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Conclave

It likewise has won at different award shows in this category and is expected to continue the sweep here.

Cinematography - The Brutalist

Another expected win by must pundits. The look of the movie and various images have often been talked about when reviewing the movie and it is some of those images which have had the most staying power in my memory out of all the nominees. It seems right to me for this film to win here.

Costume Design - Wicked

Another consensus choice by the experts. Fantasy type costumes have done better in this category lately than period pieces so I'm willing to think Wicked will win here over Nosferatu which has been mentioned as a possible upset.

Production Design - Wicked

Likewise, there has been much talk about the sets of Wicked and how they were able to be both new and evoke the memories of the 1939 Wizard of Oz. Personally, I found the big room of Oz and the giant head as one of the most impressive sets among the nominees so I am on board with this winning here also.

Make-up and Hairstyling - The Substance

Having not seen The Substance, I'm not sure what it may look like but I do know that it is a bit of a body horror movie so no doubt the make-up will play an important part in that. Lately, this award has also usually been tied to an Oscar winning performance and with Demi Moore seen as the frontrunner in Best Actress, it would seem likely that The Substance would win here also. Personally, I'd have probably gone with Wicked here and Cythnia Erivo for the tie-in acting award but it doesn't seem like that will happen.

Visual Effects - Dune Part 2

As the only Best Picture nominee in the group, everyone expects this to be the winner. Part 1 did win for this award before so will the Academy want to look elsewhere? Maybe but probably not. Lord of the Rings won three years in a row for each of its three parts so I see no reason why Dune can't win for its part 1 and part 2 especially since the effects felt better integrated than some of the other movies nominated here.

These are the 8 awards I feel most confident about. Moving on to those that I'm a bit more cautious on.

Khushrenada:
Best Sound - Dune Part 2

I've seen some picks for A Complete Unknown. It probably can't be ruled out. Sometimes, musical pictures do well in the sound category. However, when I think about the sound of ACU, I just think of a lot of Dylan songs (and some other musicians) being played and that doesn't seem too impressive to me. Dune, with its sand thumping devices, along with other touches, I feel is a better choice because those sounds help shape and create that world. Going with Dune 2.

Original Score - The Brutalist

I've seen one expert pick Wicked thinking people might choose the movie based on its Broadway songs and not realize those aren't part of what makes up Original Score but I don't think the Academy members are that dumb. These are people whose careers are in the movies so I think most are a bit more aware of nuances like that compared to if the public were just voting on these awards. There have been a couple picks for Conclave which I think is the main competition here and could pull off a surprise win. It's the only other nominee here in which I felt the music stood out more and made an impact on the film. I remember talking about the music after seeing Conclave with a friend when we were discussing it later on. However, I feel there are moments from The Brutalist which just stood out more like the opening with Brody's character waking up among a crowd and just before the intermission when there's talk of steel and a feeling of good times ahead. From moments like that, I think it will prevail.

International Feature - I'm Still Here

When the nominees were first announced, Emilia Perez was likely seen as a lock for this category with its 13 overall nominations. However, the Golden Globes Actress Drama award to Torres put this film on people's radar and the movie also ended up with a Best Picture nomination resulting in two International Films also crossing over to Best Picture. As more people have now seen I'm Still Here and a dumb twitter scandal hurting EPs already divisive reception, I think I'm Still Here will end up prevailing here. Surprisingly, of the 10 Best Picture nominees, it is the one with the highest score on IMDB. Good enough that it is currently on the Top 250 list. It's actually above Dune Part 2 which was another big favorite this year by the public. That suggests to me that there are more people likely to favorite that film over Perez. Plus, Torres seems unlikely to win Best Actress based on current trends yet she carries the movie and is the reason it has an emotional impact. Awarding it Best International may be the way to also show some love for that performance. Some people think Emilia Perez may still pull it off here but I just can't get behind that movie.

Animated Feature - The Wild Robot

One of my few misses last year was Animated Feature. I'm worried it could happen again this year because of Flow. Normally, it would seem like a lock for The Wild Robot as it was an animated film that was able to get nominations in other categories in Sound and Score. However, Flow is one of the nominations for Best International Feature which also suggests there could be strong support for the movie as International Feature rarely has animated nominations. Normally, I might say go with the movie that has animals but both movies feature animals prominently. I do wish I could have seen Flow to judge it. Looking it up, it is more of a silent movie rather than actual talking animals so that may help it transcend language boundaries. On the other hand, The Wild Robot did get me to tear up when watching it so it was able to manipulate those emotions and its story of a parent/child relationship would likely have strong appeal with voters. The Wild Robot is slightly popular than Flow on IMDB with an 8.2 rating to Flow's 7.9. That 8.2 is enough to also get The Wild Robot on the Top 250 chart. That rating also comes from more than triple the amount of votes for Flow. It's harder to have a higher rating from more votes than less so I'm going to go with the people on this one.

Best Supporting Actress - Zoe Saldana

Personally, after seeing the scene La Vaginoplastia in Emilia Perez, I don't see how anyone could then think afterwards that Saldana should be getting an award for her acting in this movie. And yet, most people think she will win here because she's kept winning for this role throughout the other precursor awards to the Oscars. If people in the industry didn't think this performance should win, we probably should have seen someone else pick up an award or two in this category but it hasn't happened. I've seen a couple picks for Isabella Rossellini thinking there might be a pushback on voters from giving awards to Perez. It's a small role but she does stand out from the few scenes she has in the film so I get it. (And I've seen the theory floated that with David Lynch's death happening when voting was just beginning some may have been swayed to select her on memories of Blue Velvet but I think that's a stretch.) I've seen others stump for Felicity Jones but I'm not as won over. On my own taste, I'd have gone with Ariana Grande. I completely enjoyed her role in that. There was also some question of category fraud with Saldana here since she seems to be more the lead role than the title character and has more screen time than anyone. It seems that length is what is helping her here and maybe a feeling that she is due some recognition after being in a lot of high grossing franchises and movies while usually not showing her real face in them. Guess we'll see what happens but I'd be happy to be wrong here.

Best Song - El Mal

Likewise, one of the "powerful" songs by Saldana during the movie is El Mal which has sort of tried to tie its fortunes to Saldana as often being used when promoting her for Best Supporting Actress and thus tying the two elements together. If you liked her performance during this moment then surely you'd vote for the song too, I guess. Again, I don't think any of the songs in Emilia Perez are great or award worthy or will be remembered after the Oscars are over but this is such a weak category that there really isn't anything to challenge or stop it from winning. I've seen a couple pundits make a choice of The Journey which is from another Netflix film The Six Triple Eight but how many people have seen that and thought this is the song to vote for? Why would that be the song a Perez protest vote would be for? There's the idea being that Diane Warren would finally win an award in this category but how many people now she composed this song? I only clued into that when looking up the nominees over this week. It's probably Perez.

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